#预测市场 Looking at recent Polymarket data, market sentiment is clearly polarized. The probability changes over the past two days reveal some interesting insights:

On December 17th, the probability of dropping below 80,000 was 32%, but by the 19th it directly dropped to 24%—this indicates that some positive event occurred during that period, boosting expectations. Simultaneously, the probability of breaking through 100,000 decreased from 9% to nearly 0, while the probability of reaching 95,000 increased to 32%. This focus on that range is quite telling.

Currently, the market expectation is actually making a "downward adjustment"—no longer expecting to hit 100,000 this year, but instead digesting within the 80,000-95,000 range. The probability of dropping below 80,000 remains stable between 24-32%, indicating that this price level has become a psychological threshold, but the market is not entirely bearish.

From an on-chain fund perspective, the probability shifts in these prediction markets usually lag behind large traders' movements by one or two days. It’s worth paying attention to whether there are clear signals of whales flowing into stablecoins or out of trading pairs within this range, as these would reflect true sentiment more promptly than the prediction market probabilities. It is recommended to closely monitor large on-chain contract interactions in the coming days, as prediction markets are only a sentiment indicator.