There is a well-known topic in the cryptocurrency world—the "Four-Year Cycle" of Bitcoin. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin's mining reward is halved, significantly slowing down the issuance of new coins in the market. According to past patterns, the halving usually triggers a bull run, pushing prices to new highs, followed by a major correction, and then a prolonged bear market.

This logic has proven reliable in the past. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price surged straight up, reaching a new high within a year; the halvings in 2016 and 2020 also followed the same script. Because of this, many investors and analysts have regarded this cycle as a golden rule for market prediction.

But this time, things seem to have changed.

The halving in April 2024 was supposed to follow the old path, but reality gave us a big slap. According to data, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 on October 6, but then the market started to decline. By the end of the year, the price had fallen by over 30%, and the closing price in 2024 was lower than the opening price at the start of the year. This is a first in Bitcoin's history—within a year after the halving, Bitcoin ended with a decline.

Industry insiders have openly stated that this means the four-year cycle has "officially declared its death." Some investors' analyses point to a new variable—the entry of institutional investors has changed the game. Market dynamics are no longer so simple, and breaking the cycle seems to have become the new normal.