On January 2nd, the Federal Reserve set the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. This decision left market bulls a bit awkward — just a year-end 25 basis point cut in 2025, then hitting the brakes immediately.

More sobering data comes from the December dot plot: Fed officials' median expectation is only a 25 basis point rate cut for the entire year, with the final rate expected to settle at 3.4%. In other words, this isn't a true easing cycle, but more like a fine-tuning. Current inflation data remains sticky at 2.4%, GDP growth stays at 2.3%, and the Fed's stance is clear — the economy remains solid, and there's no need to rush into easing.

Wall Street is completely divided. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect two rate cuts this year (25 basis points each in March and June, target rate 3.00%-3.25%); JPMorgan is more conservative, betting on just one cut; some voices advocate for zero cuts all year, and there are extreme opinions pushing for a large 150 basis point cut. Another variable is personnel — Powell might leave office in May, with Haskett seen as a dovish successor.

But reality might not be so dovish. As long as inflation remains sticky, unemployment stays below 4.7%, and economic resilience persists, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious pace. The key moment is the January 27-28 FOMC meeting — once the new dot plot is released, the market will react immediately — this detail could influence short-term movements in stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Pay attention to the performance of assets like PEPE, FIL, DOT, as every adjustment in Fed policy expectations will be reflected on-chain.