#比特币价格走势 This round of policy storms arrived faster than I expected. The risk warning issued by the association on December 5th may seem like a reiteration of old clichés, but there are new changes hidden in the details — upgrading from a trading ban to a publicity ban, expanding from broad crackdowns to specifically targeting stablecoins and RWA, indicating that regulators are learning to strike precisely.

Looking back over these twelve years, the timing of each policy implementation is quite interesting. In 2013, it hit at the tail end of the bull market; in 2017, it coincided with the peak of ICO madness; in 2021, it was during the peak of mining; and this time, it came when the hype around stablecoins and RWA was heating up. This is no coincidence; regulation is like a timing expert, always striking when the risk bubble is most inflated.

But there is an intriguing phenomenon worth pondering — the 2013 crackdown indeed ended the bull market at that time, yet the closures of exchanges in 2017 and the mining shutdowns in 2021 ultimately led Bitcoin to reach even higher peaks. What is the logic behind this? Is it that policy effectiveness is waning, or that market structures have fundamentally changed?

I believe the answer lies in geography. Previously, Bitcoin was a Chinese game; now, it is priced on Wall Street. New players like ETFs, institutions, and sovereign funds have taken over the pricing power. This explains why USDT can trade at a negative premium with people rushing to exit, yet global prices may not necessarily collapse. The binary pattern of East and West is taking shape — while domestic authorities are strictly guarding against risks, they cannot stop the global redistribution of computing power and capital.

Looking at this cycle, rather than calling it a bearish signal, it’s more like a cleanup of the old cycle. History tells us that the true bottom often quietly forms when everyone is most discouraged.