Although XRP is expected to decline by 12% in 2025, it still shows potential resilience. While the release of $1 billion in custodial funds has increased supply pressure, on-chain data indicates an opposite trend: in the fourth quarter alone, exchange reserves decreased by $300 million, and reserves from the beginning of the year have fallen from 3 billion XRP to 2.6 billion XRP, suggesting a potential supply tightness. From a technical perspective, XRP's price has been consolidating around $1.80 for several weeks. Meanwhile, over 70% of long positions in perpetual futures contracts are clearly tilted toward XRP, indicating traders are positioning for a possible local bottom as the regulatory landscape gradually becomes clearer.