McGlone: "Bitcoin's $50,000 Possibility is High"… Warns of Deflation in 2026

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: McGlone Warns of 26 Years of Deflation… “Bitcoin Could Drop to $50,000 from $100,000” Original Link: https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/archives/1027312 Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist McGlone stated on the 1st that global liquidity will be the key variable influencing market direction in the coming years. He mentioned that the global stock market capitalization is expected to increase by about $28 trillion, a 22% rise by 2025, and explained that this rapid liquidity expansion could serve as a relative benchmark for asset performance in 2026.

McGlone believes that if the stock market stops rising, deflationary pressures are likely to emerge after an inflationary phase. He interpreted gold’s performance in 2025 as a warning sign, noting it was the best performer compared to crude oil.

Bitcoin “Peak Passed, Possibility of $50,000”

McGlone assessed that Bitcoin and digital assets overall are likely to have already peaked. He stated that the possibility of Bitcoin falling to around $50,000 is greater than surpassing $100,000.

He referenced that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index declined by 19% in 2025 and analyzed that digital assets could lead the wealth reallocation process during the subsequent deflationary phase following inflation. This is explained as a correction of previously excessive wealth accumulation.

Previously, McGlone analyzed that Bitcoin was about 13% below the 50-week moving average at around $87,000. However, he pointed out that historically, lows tend to form when prices are about 55% below the 50-week moving average.

Gold, Silver, and Metals “Have Risen Too Much”

McGlone issued a warning to the precious metals market. As of December 31, silver was priced at about $72 per ounce, recording a 73% premium over the 50-week moving average. This level has only been seen once since 1954, in 1979.

He recalled that silver peaked at about $50 per ounce in 1980, then plummeted 52% within the same year to $15.50. He added that silver prices surpassing the 1979 high of $32.20 would only be possible again in 2025.

McGlone assessed that most metals, including gold and silver, face correction risks due to having “risen too much” by 2026. However, he noted that gold, which recorded alpha returns in 2025, sent an early warning signal compared to other assets.

Stock, Bond, and Political Variables Also Warnings

McGlone projected that the US stock market could experience its first three-year decline since 2008. He mentioned that a 10% increase in the S&P 500 is common, but a 10% decline could present a meaningful trading opportunity.

He also believed that US Treasuries could generate alpha from gold. Politically, the fact that the US president is in power during unfavorable times is also identified as a risk factor.

McGlone predicted that 2026 would favor tactical traders rather than long-term investors. He emphasized that investors who are sensitive to subtle market signals could seize opportunities.