The Fed's tactics are even harder to predict than Bitcoin's daily K-line!

They only cut rates by 25 basis points at the end of the year, then immediately lock the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, like an old sports car slamming on the brakes—no matter how much the market screams for relief, they just won't move an inch. This "hawkish lock-in" stance is truly hard-core.

Everyone is eagerly waiting for rate cuts in 2026, but the December dot plot directly poured cold water on that hope—only 20-25 basis points for the whole year? That's like trimming a nail and calling it a day. Inflation is stuck at 2.4%, and economic growth is still at 2.3%, implying "everything is running smoothly, no rush."

Wall Street folks are arguing just as fiercely as the chaos during crypto contract settlements: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are calling for at least two rate cuts, JPMorgan is more cautious, expecting only one, and some extreme factions are betting on a super dovish reversal of 150 basis points. They even dug up rumors that Powell might step down in May, with dovish candidates possibly taking over—expectation divergence is as intense as Bitcoin's plunge from 120,000 to 80,000.

For crypto folks, this is troublesome. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and Federal Reserve interest rates—recall the sharp decline during the 2022 rate hike cycle. Under the current "snail-paced rate cut" expectation framework, Bitcoin is stuck between 85,000 and 90,000, unable to go up or down. The lingering fear from 160,000 liquidations in 24 hours hasn't faded, and market sentiment itself is fragile.

The FOMC meeting on January 27-28 is the first big event of the year. Will the new dot plot favor dovishness and give Bitcoin a boost, or will hawkish pressure continue to suppress the market and keep crypto traders on edge? Whether in stocks, lending markets, or crypto circles, everyone needs to buckle up these days.