#美联储FOMC会议 The Federal Reserve's new dot plot is about to be released, will the market迎来 a dovish shift or continue to be suppressed by hawkish pressures?

Just a few days into 2026, the Fed has already paused its rate cuts. The interest rate is anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, after a wave of 25 basis point cuts at the end of 2025, it has directly hit the brakes. This pace seems to be operating in the opposite direction of market expectations — the more you expect easing, the more they hold back.

The December dot plot delivered a heavy blow to everyone: officials expect only one rate cut in all of 2026, with a total of 25 basis points, ending with a rate around 3.4%. The data is clear — inflation remains sticky at 2.4%, and economic growth steady at 2.3%. The message is unmistakable: "The economy is fine, no need to rush to loosen."

Wall Street's attitude is highly divided. Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley collectively expect "two rate cuts throughout the year," with 25 basis point cuts in March and June, ultimately bringing the rate to 3.00%-3.25%. JPMorgan Chase is more conservative, betting on only one rate cut. But the extremes are explosive: some insist on "zero rate cuts," while others fantasize about a large 150 basis point cut, and dovish traders are considering whether the new Fed Chair can "pull off a big move."

A few optimists, like Moody's, hope that a collapse in employment and political pressure will force easing, resulting in three 75 basis point cuts — but this seems more like a niche scenario. The reality is clear: unless the unemployment rate soars above 4.7% and inflation quickly returns to the 2% target range, the Fed will maintain this "turtle-paced" rate hike approach.

On January 27-28, the FOMC will release a new dot plot — can this decision reverse market expectations? Cryptocurrency assets, the stock market, and the lending market are all waiting for this answer.