Those who stayed up in front of their screens waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting results probably didn't sleep well last night.

From the meeting content, the Fed's stance is actually quite clear — inflation is indeed easing, but expecting them to loosen policy easily? That's wishful thinking. There are two practical issues behind this: first, recent government shutdowns disrupted data flow, economic indicators are not solid enough, and rash decisions carry too much risk; second, the internal consensus is that if a rate cut cycle is to be initiated, it should be gradual, observing market reactions before deciding on the next steps, and definitely not an aggressive one-step move.

Those who have been shouting "rate cuts in January" are mostly wishful thinking. Just look at how firm the Fed's language is — if they truly planned to act in January, their wording would have been much softer, like a gummy candy, rather than the current "cooling expectations" stance.

For the crypto market, this meeting is neither a direct positive nor a pure negative; essentially, it's about "expectations being realized." The problem is that retail investors often confuse the concepts of "rate cuts in the future" and "the pace of rate cuts." They get excited when they see rate cut expectations early on but fail to notice the detail that "the pace will be very gentle." What the market truly fears is not the bad news itself but the deviation between reality and expectations. This time, the Fed has been very clear, and in the short term, the market is likely to follow a "rise sharply then oscillate within a range" pattern — especially watch the monthly close tonight, as missing the rhythm could lead to losses.