Recently, the movements in the silver market have attracted attention. As a crypto investor, I am wondering how the underlying logic might transmit to the cryptocurrency space.

From the phenomenon, gold is rising, US stocks are rising, but BTC is not following—this contrast is quite interesting. I haven't paid much attention to silver before until I saw news of its doubling, which made me realize that this market is also moving.

The background is as follows: gold has always been a reserve asset for central banks around the world, with China, India, and others continuously accumulating. Silver's supply chain is more complex—China's refining technology is far ahead, and with the same amount of ore, Chinese refining can profit at around 5 grams, while other countries need 50 grams or even 100 grams to break even. How big is this gap? China is the world's largest exporter of refined silver.

The current issue is that there is a global silver deficit of 3,000 tons. If regulatory policies are implemented, it could trigger scarcity expectations—similar to the control measures on rare earth elements back then. The initial price increases have already occurred, and policy implementation often marks the beginning of the realization of benefits. According to market logic, it may face short-term pressure, but the probability of maintaining an upward trend in the long term is high.

What does this mean? My understanding is that hot money has flowed from the crypto space into assets like silver, gold, and US stocks recently. After taking profits, this capital is likely to look for the next opportunity. And Bitcoin, as a major risk asset, naturally becomes a target for the return flow.

From the perspective of market manipulators, they see the same data I do. The next move is likely to be: leveraging the window of large capital inflow to push BTC higher. A conservative target is around $900, with an aggressive push possibly reaching $945.

Honestly, there’s so much to learn in the crypto world now. It used to be purely technical analysis and on-chain data, but now you also need to understand precious metals, US stocks, and macroeconomics. Living a lifetime really means learning a lifetime.

Altcoin season should also have opportunities. I personally focus on ARB and SD, and I have friends watching DOGE. But I suggest everyone follow their own understanding—don’t go all-in blindly.