#Strategy加码BTC配置 【Ethereum Short-Term Technical Warning: Range Play Under RSI Overbought Signal】

At the start of the new year, an interesting technical phenomenon appeared on the 1-hour chart of Ethereum. The RSI indicator surged to 80.4, which is a typical overbought zone, usually indicating that short-term sentiment has been overly released. But here’s something worth noting—the price is confined within a narrow range of just 36 points between 2970 and 3006, with volatility at a relative standstill.

From historical experience, extreme overbought conditions combined with price compression often lead to a sharp one-way move within the next 6 hours, with a probability exceeding 70%. The question is: will it break upward or pull back downward?

**Core Contradiction Analysis**

An RSI of 80.4 indicates that buying momentum has been severely overextended, and a technical correction could be triggered at any moment. Meanwhile, the price is locked within a 36-point range. This combination resembles a precise range sniper rather than a conventional trend.

**Possible Trading Ideas** (for reference only)

Considering the daily chart still shows a downtrend, the probability of a downward breakout is higher. If the price hits resistance around 3002-3005, it may pull back to the 2980-2970 area. Conversely, if it stabilizes above 3006 with increased volume, a short-term test of the 4-hour resistance at 3028 could occur.

**Risk Control Points**

Key levels are 3012 (a breakout above this changes the judgment) and 2965 (a breakdown below this requires re-evaluation). Before placing any orders, it’s worth checking these critical points. Once the price breaks through with volume, the original logic invalidates, and strategies should be adjusted immediately.

$ETH’s short-term trading opportunity lies within this 36-point "cage"—capture boundary fluctuations and avoid the consumption in the middle zone. The market will give a clear answer in the next 6 hours.