Since the beginning of the year, the crypto market has not brought the expected warmth to investors. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 19, marking an extreme fear zone. Bitcoin remains under pressure near $88,000, while last year saw an approximate 5% decline—an unprecedented event in history, with a halving year ending in a decline.

This phenomenon breaks the widely circulated "Four-Year Cycle Bull Market Law" that has persisted for years. The once revered rule is now failing. The market seems to be telling us through prices that simple beliefs and copying historical experience are no longer sufficient.

The most important thing to watch out for now is that extreme pessimism may trigger a chain reaction. Price continues to fall → triggers large-scale liquidations → further depresses prices. Once this death spiral starts, it becomes difficult to control. Many investors are in a state of panic.

But from another perspective, a breakdown in consensus often also signals an opportunity. The discount on prices is evident; the key is whether we can clarify a few questions: What forces are driving the market from scattered retail narratives? Can the story of "digital gold" still stand firm? Where will the true main theme be in 2026?

What is needed this year is more calm thinking, patience, and genuine insights than ever before, rather than being led by the numbers on the charts.