2026-01-01 16:21:41

The four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin may have quietly become invalid. Instead of rigidly adhering to the halving timeline, it can be said that the market has evolved into a new rhythm—volatility is the norm, but the long-term trend remains upward.

Why is the magic of the halving cycle fading? Think about it carefully, and it becomes clear. First, the mining space for Bitcoin was already limited, and now it has been mined almost to the limit. Second, the main players controlling the market rhythm have changed—institutional capital has gradually become the market's stabilizing force. Their strategies are completely different.

Institutions don't need to understand the mining logic and profit chains behind halving; they focus on broader asset allocation cycles and market liquidity. This shift means that Bitcoin's price-driving forces are gradually moving from supply-side halving cycles to demand-side capital battles. The market's rhythm has been redefined.

BTC0,66%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ChainPoet

· 4h ago

Halving cycle invalid? Haha, I told you, the retail investors holding on to that stuff, institutions have long been tired of playing with it. Institutions don't care about your little mining logic; they are looking at the liquidity game. While we're still calculating the halving, they've already moved on to the next move. Basically, the game rules have changed, but that's a good thing — at least in the long run, it's still upward, much more reliable than betting on halving to gamble on luck.

View OriginalReply0

LuckyHashValue

· 4h ago

The halving cycle is dead, and institutional play is dominant. To put it simply, the era of retail investors is over; now it's about big funds' influence. Honestly, the four-year cycle theory should have collapsed long ago. Mining is almost exhausted, and you're still using it as a golden rule? Wake up, everyone. What institutions are really playing isn't the halving cycle; they are looking at macro liquidity. We're still waiting for the cycle... the gap is too big. I believe in the long-term upward trend, but don't be overly superstitious about halving anymore. The market is rewriting the rules, and we need to learn anew. Wait, do retail investors still have a chance? Or have we already entered an era of being harvested... Instead of studying halving, it's better to study what institutions are doing. That's the core of the new gameplay. Volatility is normal? Doesn't that mean the market is even harder to predict, making me more anxious.

View OriginalReply0

MagicBean

· 4h ago

The halving cycle is already a thing of the past. Now, institutional players set the tone, and retail investors can only follow along and take the dust. By the way, I stopped believing in the four-year cycle narrative a long time ago; it's purely a post hoc rationalization. Institutional entry truly changed the game rules. Now, looking at macro liquidity is much more useful than analyzing mining data. Long-term upward trend? I've heard this phrase many times. The key question is, when will I break even? Shifting from supply-side to demand-side... sounds impressive, but it's actually just another way for big players to cut the leeks.

View OriginalReply0

NotFinancialAdviser

· 4h ago

The halving cycle should have become invalid a long time ago. It's a bit late to bring this up now. The moment institutional investors entered the market, it was destined that the game rules for retail investors would be completely changed.

View OriginalReply0

DecentralizeMe

· 4h ago

Halving magic fading? Basically, it means the big players are changing hands. Staring at the four-year cycle every day should wake you up; when institutions step in, retail investors have nothing to do with it. Long-term upward trend is correct, but this wave's rhythm is indeed different. The mining logic is outdated; now, it's the people with more money who call the shots. Instead of waiting for the halving, it's better to watch liquidity—that's the real game rule. Wait, does this mean we small retail investors should accept our fate? Haha. Institutions set the tone, retail follow the trend, and the cycle theory has completely fallen apart. I think this view is a bit pessimistic, but it does hit the current situation. The shift from supply to demand, very accurate—this is the current market. Long-term upward trend is enough; don't expect to get rich overnight from halving.

View OriginalReply0

StableGeniusDegen

· 4h ago

Halving magic fading? Basically, institutions have changed the rules, and retail investors need to relearn their strategies.

View OriginalReply0