The market is eerily quiet, but I know in my heart—this is the calm before the storm.

Today, December 31, 2025, the final showdown of the year is about to begin. Bitcoin fluctuates around $89,000, Ethereum also swings near $2,980, Bollinger Bands are stretched to the limit, and volatility hits a new low for the year.

What lies behind this "calm"? The institutional traders in Europe and America have long gone on vacation, and there is almost no liquidity in the market. In such an environment, even the slightest movement can be amplified infinitely.

Tonight, two events could change the situation.

**Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes — 3:00 AM**

The December meeting minutes are about to be released. The focus this time isn't on whether they will raise rates (the market has already priced in an 85% probability of no change in January), but on the subtle implications behind the words.

My understanding is: the Federal Reserve is playing out a battle between hawks and doves. Many officials agree that cutting rates after inflation subsides is a reasonable choice, but they disagree on the timing and magnitude—direction is correct, but the pace is chaotic.

If the minutes lean hawkish, showing a tough stance on inflation and employment, the market's hope for an early rate cut will be shattered, the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will be suppressed. Conversely, if the tone shifts noticeably softer, don’t rush to buy. In such a tight liquidity market, any rebound is often fleeting, and the real trend will only emerge when liquidity returns in the new year.

The Fed’s wording is like micro-expressions; it requires careful reading.

**Another variable at 21:30**

At this time, heavy data will be released. Once these two "bombs" explode, the market will be able to see the direction clearly. For now, we are just waiting for the wind to come.