Latest market data indicates that Ethereum (ETH) opened in 2026 at approximately $2,950 to $3,000. Current market sentiment is mixed, with complex signals from technical and macro fundamental perspectives. Below is an analysis and strategic points based on current information.

📈 Current Market Conditions and Key Levels

· Current Price Level: approximately $2,950 - $3,000.
· Key Resistance Above: $3,100, a breakout could trigger a large-scale short squeeze, pushing prices higher.
· Key Support Below: $2,900, a breakdown could trigger a large-scale long squeeze, leading to a decline.
· Important Psychological Level: $3,000, a critical battleground for bulls and bears.

⚠️ Core Risks to Watch

Significant leverage liquidation risks exist near key price levels, which could amplify market volatility.

· Downside Risk: If the price drops below $2,900, approximately $784 million in long positions could be forcibly liquidated.
· Upside Risk: If the price breaks above $3,100, approximately $923 million in short positions could be forcibly liquidated.

📊 Bull and Bear Perspectives and Future Outlook

Market opinions on future trends are notably divided, with main viewpoints summarized as follows:

Bullish Perspective

· Core Reasons: Technical breakout patterns, institutional adoption, ecosystem development.
· Key Technical Levels: Focus on whether the weekly chart confirms a breakout of the $3,200-$3,500 resistance zone.
· Long-term Targets: Some technical analyses envision targets as high as $7,000-$7,600. Institutions like Grayscale believe regulatory clarity and institutional capital inflows will support a long-term bull market.

Bearish/Cautious Perspective

· Core Reasons: Macro headwinds, double-top risks on technical charts, liquidity shortages.
· Key Warning: Some analysts warn that if the price rebounds to the previous high near $4,878, a double-top formation could occur, risking a significant pullback.
· Main Concern: Under macro conditions such as Federal Reserve tightening, market liquidity may be insufficient to sustain a one-sided rally.

💡 Trading Strategy Recommendations

Based on the above, you might consider the following approaches:

· Short-term Traders: Focus on the key levels of $2,900 and $3,100. Breakouts in either direction could lead to volatile, “liquidation-driven” swings. Use stop-loss orders or look for breakout opportunities. Before a breakout, expect the market to oscillate within this range.
· Medium- to Long-term Investors: Weigh optimistic technical outlooks against macro uncertainties. If bullish long-term, view the current range as a potential accumulation zone, but set appropriate stop-losses (e.g., a decisive breakdown below $2,900 support). Also, closely monitor major events like the 2026 Federal Reserve policies and Ethereum network upgrades.

In summary, Ethereum is currently at a critical technical and liquidity juncture. Short-term direction may be dictated by a breakout above or below the $2,900-$3,100 range, while the medium- to long-term trend depends on macro environment factors and technical pattern resonance.

If you want more detailed strategies for short-term trading or insights into specific fundamental factors affecting Ethereum (such as Federal Reserve policies, network upgrades), I can provide further analysis.