Has the four-year cycle for Bitcoin really ended?

For many years, we were used to the idea that Bitcoin moves in a cycle every 4 years…
This halving → strong rally → correction → bear market → and then repeat.
This idea worked for us more than once, and many people's investment decisions were based on it.
But after 2025, the question becomes very logical:
Does this cycle still exist? Or has the market changed?
⸻
What happened in 2025 is different
What happened is that Bitcoin finished 2025 below its starting price,
And this is the first time it happened in a year after the halving.
Historically:
• Any year after the halving was a rally
• This time… the scenario broke
And that made many say:
The four-year cycle has ended.
⸻
So why do people see it that way?
Simply, the market is no longer like before:
1. Institutional entry
Now you have funds, ETFs, huge amounts of money…
These investors are not investing based on “the next cycle.”
2. Economic factors have become stronger
Interest rates, inflation, liquidity, central bank decisions
All of this now has a direct impact on Bitcoin’s price.
3. The market has grown and matured
Bitcoin is no longer small like before
The movement has become calmer, slower, and less impulsive.
⸻
Does this mean the halving is no longer relevant?
No… not in that sense.
The halving is still important,
But not alone.
Some believe that:
• The impact has become slower
• The cycle itself might be longer
• Instead of 4 years… maybe 5 or more
It hasn't disappeared… it has just changed shape.
⸻
Maybe the peak was just delayed?
Another logical scenario:
That the peak hasn't come yet
And what people were expecting in 2025
Could happen in 2026
Not the end of the cycle…
But an extension of it.
⸻
Summary
The four-year cycle:
❌ is not a sacred rule
❌ and not a guarantee of profit
But:
✅ is still one of the factors
✅ but it must be considered alongside the economy, liquidity, and risks
Today, the right question is not:
What year are we in within the cycle?
But:
How is the liquidity?
Are the risks high or low?
Where is the interest going?
⸻
Final note
Anyone investing based on just one model,
puts themselves at risk.
Cycles help
But they don’t guarantee anything