After 12 months of silence, a sudden move: the true intention behind the whale unlocking $20.3 million worth of HYPE staking

A certain entity unstaked 631,889 HYPE tokens over the past three days through three different wallets after being dormant for more than 12 months. This operation accounts for approximately 14% to 15% of its total HYPE holdings, sparking widespread market speculation about the whale’s intentions. In the context of HYPE recently becoming a market hotspot, this “resurgence” signal warrants in-depth analysis.

Whale Profile: From Early Participant to Long-term Holder

Identity and Background

According to on-chain data monitoring, this entity is an early participant in HYPE. Its HYPE holdings were initially purchased within three weeks after the TGE (Token Generation Event), with funds sourced from Tornado Cash. This indicates that the entity is not only an early supporter of the project but also employs mixers for privacy protection, demonstrating a high level of professionalism and caution.

Long-term Holding Scale

The 631,889 unstaked HYPE tokens represent only about 14% to 15% of its total holdings, implying that the entity currently holds over 4.2 million HYPE tokens. At the current price of $25.31, the total position exceeds $1.06 billion. This is a substantial position, indicating strong confidence in the long-term prospects of the HYPE project.

Key Details of the Unstaking

Professionalism of the Operation Method

The entity did not unstake all tokens at once but dispersed the operation over the past three days through three different wallets. This approach reflects two characteristics:

• Risk Management: Distributing operations across multiple wallets reduces the risk of single-address tracing and market impact.
• Liquidity Consideration: Staggered unstaking helps better absorb market liquidity and avoid slippage.

Significance of Timing

What does a 12-month dormancy mean? HYPE was listed for trading on July 15, 2024. The entity’s 12-month dormancy suggests no on-chain activity since around late December 2024. Choosing to unstake some tokens at the end of 2025 may reflect changes in market conditions or the entity’s own strategy.

HYPE Market Status: Why Now?

Price and Market Performance

HYPE has declined 22.56% over the past 30 days but rebounded slightly in the past 7 days. This “bottoming rebound” environment may be an opportune moment for whales to partially unstake—neither at the peak (which could leave regrets) nor at the bottom (which carries higher risk).

Market Sentiment Comparison

According to data sources, HYPE has recently appeared frequently among trending cryptocurrencies, forming hotspots alongside new tokens like LIT and ELIZAOS. Additionally, Bitwise has recently submitted ETF applications for 11 cryptocurrencies, including HYPE, which may enhance institutional expectations for its long-term prospects.

Possible Interpretations and Inferences

Interpretation 1: Partial Profit-Taking

A whale holding over $1 billion worth of tokens choosing to unstake 14-15% may be a prudent profit-taking strategy. It is not a full liquidation but a partial lock-in of gains while maintaining most of the position. Considering the early purchase cost (within three weeks after TGE), the current price already offers significant returns.

Interpretation 2: Portfolio Adjustment

The whale may be adjusting its capital allocation. Data indicates that multiple whales are engaging in complex long and short operations across different tokens. Unstaking HYPE could be to participate in other more attractive trading opportunities, such as the volatility of new tokens like LIT.

Interpretation 3: Market Risk Alert

A sudden move after 12 months of dormancy might also reflect the entity’s sensitivity to certain market risks. Although only part of the stake is being unstaked, the “resurgence” itself is a signal.

Market Impact Assessment

Selling Pressure

The $20.3 million unstaked amount accounts for about 2.4% of HYPE’s $859 million market cap. Considering the operation was spread across three wallets over three days, the actual market impact should be limited. The 2.50% decline in HYPE within 24 hours may result from multiple factors and cannot be solely attributed to this unstaking.

Market Psychology

More importantly, the psychological impact may be significant. Partial unstaking by a long-term holder could trigger market associations with “top signals,” although such interpretations are often overdone.

Summary

This whale’s unstaking operation exhibits several key features: firstly, it reflects a rational move by an experienced early participant rather than panic selling; secondly, the dispersed operation and partial unstaking demonstrate professional risk management; finally, against the backdrop of rising market heat and increasing institutional recognition, this move may simply be a normal portfolio adjustment rather than a warning of market top. Future attention should be paid to whether the entity continues to unstake and how HYPE performs in the long term amid ongoing institutional ETF applications.