Strategy stock price drops 49% annually, hitting a five-year low, BTC Treasury Strategy faces its first six consecutive months of decline test

December 31, 2025, MicroStrategy (Strategy) stock closed at $151.95, down 49.35% for the year. More notably, this company experienced its first six consecutive months of declining stock prices since adopting the Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020. Behind this historic record is market deep skepticism about the effectiveness of this aggressive strategy.

Historic Decline Record

How bad has Strategy’s stock performance been? Just look at the six-month decline: August down 16.78%, September down 3.65%, October down 16.36%, November down 34.26%, December down 14.24%. The total decline reached 59.30%.

This is not just an ordinary correction. It is the first time since announcing the Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020 that Strategy has experienced six consecutive months of decline. Considering Bitcoin has risen 219% over the past five years, this contrast is particularly ironic.

Strange Decoupling of Stock Price and BTC Price

An interesting phenomenon has emerged: BTC’s current price is $87,845.74. Although it has fluctuated over the past year, it has not crashed. In contrast, Strategy’s stock price decline far exceeds Bitcoin’s own performance. This indicates the problem is not with Bitcoin but with Strategy itself.

Related data shows that Strategy holds approximately 672,497 BTC, with a cost basis of about $75,000 per Bitcoin. Even at the current price, this asset remains profitable. But this has not prevented the stock price from falling.

Collective Failure of Market Expectations

A deeper reason may be related to the overall market expectation management in 2025. Early in the year, several crypto industry leaders made overly optimistic predictions:

• Michael Saylor (Strategy co-founder) expected Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of the year
• Tom Lee expected Bitcoin to reach over $100,000 by year-end (later revised to over $250,000)
• Arthur Hayes expected Bitcoin to reach $200,000 or higher by year-end

All these predictions ultimately missed the mark. In fact, Bitcoin’s annual increase was limited and far from these expectations. The huge gap between expectations and reality may have directly shaken investors’ confidence in Strategy and its BTC strategy.

Clash Between Supporters and Critics

Strategy’s BTC strategy has sparked two opposing voices in the market.

Critics include gold advocate Peter Schiff. At the end of the year, he commented that if Strategy were part of the S&P 500, its 47.5% decline would make it the sixth-worst performing stock in the index. He bluntly stated: “Michael Saylor claims the company’s best choice is to buy Bitcoin, and that’s exactly what they did. This strategy has completely destroyed shareholder value.”

But supporters are also defending. Some analysts pointed out that Strategy’s BTC cost basis is about $75,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below this price multiple times, yet Strategy has never been forced to sell. CantorFitzgerald stated at the end of December that there is currently no situation that would force Strategy to sell its Bitcoin holdings.

Hold or Shift?

It is worth noting that Strategy’s management has not changed its strategy despite the stock price decline. In late December, Strategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 1,229 BTC, bringing its total holdings to approximately 672,497 BTC. This shows that Michael Saylor remains confident in the BTC treasury strategy.

This has also attracted attention from other companies. American billionaire Grant Cardone announced that he will establish a company in 2026 that involves both Bitcoin and real estate, following Strategy’s model. Japanese company Metaplanet has also become the second company to issue Bitcoin-backed perpetual preferred stock.

Summary

Strategy’s historic decline reflects a deeper issue: can a company’s BTC treasury strategy truly create value for shareholders, or is it just a gamble?

Data shows that the stock price decline is not due to poor Bitcoin performance but to market doubts about the strategy’s effectiveness. Overly optimistic expectations at the beginning of the year, poor overall stock market performance (Nasdaq 100 index up only 20.17% in 2025), and Strategy’s own operational performance may all have contributed to the pressure on the stock price.

However, the management’s persistence in increasing holdings indicates they believe this is a long-term game. In 2026, we will continue to observe how this “BTC treasury strategy” experiment evolves.