New Year Kickoff, ETH surges past 3000 then is instantly dumped—this is not just a simple technical correction, but a clash between bullish momentum and macro realities. The US initial jobless claims data unexpectedly came in strong at 199,000, directly impacting the market’s optimistic expectations for Fed rate cuts. With such resilience in the employment market, what reason does the central bank have to rush to loosen liquidity?

The key variable in the market is clear: in the short term, the script of "massive liquidity infusion" is essentially no longer feasible. For ETH, the 3000 psychological threshold now acts like a life-and-death line for bulls and bears—above 3030 faces strong resistance, while below 2890 becomes a bottom that must not be broken. Interestingly, Citigroup’s latest warning is worth noting: current employment data may contain a lot of "holiday water," and the true employment trend could be even weaker than the data suggests, which might trigger a new market reversal next month’s non-farm payroll report.

Two core technical scenarios are unfolding: First, if ETH successfully volume-stands at 3000 and breaks through 3030, a major upward wave could officially begin; second, after multiple failed attempts to push higher, a secondary setup opportunity may form around 2890. But regardless of which scenario materializes, the most important principle to follow now is—until the trend is clear, keep positions light and test cautiously; capital safety always comes before profit expectations.

The current market is like a tightly stretched string, one end holding resilient employment data, the other end investors’ persistent bets on rate cuts. Who will ultimately have the last laugh in this game? Is your position already prepared for the next wave of change?