This time it's really unbelievable. Early in the morning, I watched the full 2025 Bitcoin annual trend from start to finish, and I almost spilled my coffee. With eight years in the industry, this is the first time I've seen such a situation—the "rise three years, fall one year" pattern that has never failed since 2011 has completely broken down.

Let's briefly review the history: Over the past fourteen years, Bitcoin has been like a precisely programmed machine, perfectly following this rhythm. From 2011 to 2014, 2015 to 2018, and 2019 to 2022, three complete cycles, each as precise as copy-paste. People in the circle have fully understood this playbook—knowing the cycle means making money while lying down. Many seasoned traders I know confidently said last year, "2025 will definitely rise, just lay out your positions and wait."

But reality hit hard: Bitcoin opened at $93,567 in 2025 and closed the year at $87,870, a decline of 6.08%. The iron law has been hammered into scrap metal.

Some might casually say, "It only fell a single digit, what's the big deal?" But that's just naive. The truly terrifying part is that this decline shattered the most core "consensus foundation" in the market. The cyclical nature of the crypto market is fundamentally a resonance of three factors: capital, sentiment, and regulation. The reason this iron law has lasted so many years is that the global liquidity environment and the pace of institutional entry just happened to align with this cycle window. But in 2025, everything has changed.