Bitcoin hovers around $90,000, and many are asking: Is this rally over?

Don't rush to conclusions; first, see what the data says.

**Institutional Funds Reshape the Bitcoin Ecosystem**

Since the rebound after the October crash, Bitcoin has fallen from $110,000 back to around $89,000, seemingly stagnant. But if you only focus on the price, you're missing the most important changes.

ETF holdings now account for over 5% of circulating supply, and data from Grayscale shows Bitcoin's market cap share has surged to 60%. In other words, Wall Street funds now hold only Bitcoin, and liquidity for other tokens has been drained. The $19.2 billion liquidation (a record!) nearly wiped out leveraged longs, and now open interest is much lower than before, making the market look healthier.

The old topics like four-year cycles and halving effects are no longer effective. The real drivers now are the Federal Reserve's purse strings and political cycles.

**Should You Take Profit at $90,000?**

It depends on what type of trader you are.

For short-term traders, if this $90,000 is built on heavy leverage, taking profits gradually is a rational choice. RSI soaring to 90 and exchange net inflows surging are signals of a short-term top. Chasing the last bit of gains often results in the worst losses.

Long-term bulls see it differently. MicroStrategy holds 670,000 BTC at an average cost of $30,000, now tripled on paper. Their focus is on the macro target of $150,000 next year, and they don't care about short-term fluctuations.

As for those still mining altcoins—wake up. This rally is a Bitcoin solo dance; even Ethereum is being drained by L2 ecosystems, and the altcoin index has been stagnant all year. Unless you're betting on AI or RWA leading projects, it's better to hold your bullets.

**The Equivalence of Effort and Reward**

To make money in this market, the logic is simple: spend time analyzing on-chain data, endure volatility, and compound returns. Those asking if they can copy trades should first ask themselves if they’re willing to monitor whale movements daily and review funding rates. If you don’t put in the effort, you'll naturally miss the opportunities.

**Three Stages of Market Advancement**

After the October crash, long-term holders on the chain started to reduce selling pressure, and the MVRV-Z Score dropped below 2, signaling a bottoming process.

Institutional accumulation is ongoing, with BlackRock's IBIT averaging a net inflow of $300 million daily, and political-themed tokens attracting significant funds. The political premium has yet to fully ferment, leaving plenty of room for growth.