There is a saying that has been popular in the crypto circle for a long time—Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. But looking at these data, it seems not so simple.

From 2011 to now, this digital asset's performance has been truly outrageous. It increased by 5428% in 2013, 1369% in 2017, and only 60% in 2021. During downturns, it also defies logic—down 74% in 2018, 64% in 2022, and this year 2025, it’s down another 5% at the start of the year.

In 2020, it surged 303%, and in 2024, it rose 121%… It seems any pattern can be fitted. Some years see strong rebounds, some are flat, and some are outright halved. The question is: can the idea of a four-year cycle still be valid?

Perhaps cycles exist, but they are never as regular as we think. The market always has its own temper.