Recently, operations in the crypto community have been all over the place. As soon as the interest rate cut news came out, some people immediately took out loans to fully buy a mainstream coin, claiming they wanted to "ride the wave to wealth." Others emptied their spot holdings, waiting for a pullback to buy the dip, only to get caught with a facepalm. Still, some kept reposting the view that "interest rate cuts will definitely lead to a rise"—even without fully understanding how much the Federal Reserve actually cut.

These phenomena reflect the same core issue: when macro policies change, most people lose their trading framework and are driven by emotions and herd mentality. But the truly profitable institutions and veterans? They never operate like that. They focus on two core signals, which is what I want to discuss with you today.

First, a key point upfront: interest rate cuts do trigger capital flows, but not as simply as you might think. Theoretically, a rate cut should weaken the dollar, and by conventional reasoning, crypto assets priced in USD should rise—that sounds logical, but market reality is often the opposite.

In the initial phase after the rate cut announcement, the market usually opts to avoid risk due to uncertainty, leading traders to rush into buying dollars as a hedge. This causes the dollar index to strengthen in the short term, which suppresses crypto market performance. You saw that recently, when the dollar index rose just 0.3%, Bitcoin's rally was stalled—that's no coincidence.

So, the real trading logic is: don’t rush to go all-in. Wait until the dollar index stabilizes and begins to decline—that’s when the true entry signal appears. The market is always there, but the opportunity to buy the dip is always reserved for those with patience.