2025 is about to end, and Bitcoin's performance this year has largely met expectations — oscillating repeatedly between around 80,000 and 90,000, and never making a strong push toward 100,000. Many people are asking, is there still a rebound opportunity?

Honestly, I think there is. But this opportunity might only manifest in the first half of next year, especially during the window when the new Federal Reserve Chair officially takes office and transitions from the previous one. If expectations for rate cuts and balance sheet expansion really materialize, the market could indeed see another small rally. However, I estimate the ceiling for this rally would be around 95,000 to 105,000, after which a more noticeable decline is likely.

From an annual perspective, the probability of a bear market in 2026 is quite high. At that time, Bitcoin might test the 75,000 range or even lower, around 55,000. Of course, these are projections based on current market signals; the actual path will depend on Federal Reserve policies, macro liquidity, and other variables.

Currently, market voices are still quite mixed, and there is still room for bulls to turn the tide. What are your thoughts on this round of market trend?