Recently, there's a very interesting phenomenon in the crypto world—when the Federal Reserve changes its policy stance, the entire market either celebrates wildly or crashes dramatically. Many people blame the "main players" for cutting leeks, but this pattern is actually too small. The real answer is hidden behind something not very conspicuous but extremely powerful, called "macro expectation gap." This thing is invisible and intangible, yet it can shrink your account by half in minutes.
**What is the macro expectation gap?**
Simply put: the gap between what the market expects to happen and what actually happens in the end. For example, if the market collectively guesses that a certain favorable policy will be implemented, but the actual implementation is much weaker than expected—that constitutes a bearish expectation gap.
Many people think this thing is far from them. In reality, the crypto market is no longer a small circle playing behind closed doors. Any macro-level movement, once amplified through the expectation gap, can be reflected in the coin prices in seconds.
**How does the expectation gap manipulate the market? I’ve summarized the most deadly tactics:**
Last year, a major country announced inflation data. The market generally expected inflation to continue rising, and many traders preemptively shorted to hedge. But what happened? The data was actually a month-on-month decline.
How did the market react? It immediately reversed and bought aggressively. Mainstream coins surged by 15 points in half a day. Those brothers who shorted early probably still feel the pain from slapping their thighs in front of the screen. This is the true power of the expectation gap—it can completely overturn market direction in an instant, and the thrill is even more intense than a roller coaster ride.
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MEVHunterZhang
· 8h ago
Ah... you're right, the expected difference is indeed an invisible killer, hard to guard against.
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SlowLearnerWang
· 8h ago
It's that kind of pattern where the expected difference causes a breakout... Really, I'm always the slowest to react.
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ApeShotFirst
· 8h ago
Damn it, it's the same old story. The expectation gap has my ears ringing, and the key is that I keep doing the opposite, and my account directly shrinks.
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HodlVeteran
· 8h ago
Well said. I'm one of those who have been burned by the expectation gap. In 2018, I almost lost all my savings... Now looking at the market is like watching a roller coaster. A one-second delay in reaction means a huge loss, brother.
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TokenDustCollector
· 8h ago
The so-called expectation gap, to put it simply, is that those who bet on the right direction laugh to death, while those who bet against it cry to death.
No matter how complicated it gets, it can't change this fundamental truth.
This round of inflation data was truly the absolute, and I kind of regret not taking advantage of that 15% gain back then.
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NFT_Therapy_Group
· 8h ago
The so-called expected difference is basically a time lag arbitrage mechanism; retail investors are always the slowest to react.
Recently, there's a very interesting phenomenon in the crypto world—when the Federal Reserve changes its policy stance, the entire market either celebrates wildly or crashes dramatically. Many people blame the "main players" for cutting leeks, but this pattern is actually too small. The real answer is hidden behind something not very conspicuous but extremely powerful, called "macro expectation gap." This thing is invisible and intangible, yet it can shrink your account by half in minutes.
**What is the macro expectation gap?**
Simply put: the gap between what the market expects to happen and what actually happens in the end. For example, if the market collectively guesses that a certain favorable policy will be implemented, but the actual implementation is much weaker than expected—that constitutes a bearish expectation gap.
Many people think this thing is far from them. In reality, the crypto market is no longer a small circle playing behind closed doors. Any macro-level movement, once amplified through the expectation gap, can be reflected in the coin prices in seconds.
**How does the expectation gap manipulate the market? I’ve summarized the most deadly tactics:**
**First tactic: Trigger extreme short-term volatility**
Last year, a major country announced inflation data. The market generally expected inflation to continue rising, and many traders preemptively shorted to hedge. But what happened? The data was actually a month-on-month decline.
How did the market react? It immediately reversed and bought aggressively. Mainstream coins surged by 15 points in half a day. Those brothers who shorted early probably still feel the pain from slapping their thighs in front of the screen. This is the true power of the expectation gap—it can completely overturn market direction in an instant, and the thrill is even more intense than a roller coaster ride.