When the Federal Reserve's policy is announced in the early morning, the crypto community's group chat instantly erupts into chaos—warnings of collapse, panic selling, fleeing, and extreme fear flood the screen non-stop. It looks truly frightening, but I want to share an counterintuitive conclusion: the most extreme fear in the market often signals that an opportunity is approaching. Although the macro environment is quite bleak, if you're willing to look down and examine on-chain data, you'll find that two strong signals have already been released within the crypto space—master these two points, and you can reverse the trend and position yourself while others are cutting losses and fleeing. Of course, you should also be cautious of two potential black swan risks; otherwise, you might end up bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain.

Let's start with the first signal. Over the past 30 days, the cumulative losses of short-term holders have exceeded $4.5 billion, a loss scale that has only appeared during the bottom phase of the 2024 yen arbitrage crash. After many years in this industry, I have a hard rule—when short-term retail investors are forced to cut losses and flee, the market's cyclical bottom is basically near. Now, a large amount of short-term capital has already been forced to exit, and selling pressure has basically been fully released. This is actually a good sign.

The second signal is even more interesting. Bitcoin is being accumulated wildly. The BTC balance on exchanges has plummeted, now falling below 2.6 million coins, hitting the lowest level since 2018. What does this reflect? Genuine long-term investors are taking action—they are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges for long-term storage, not interested in short-term trading volatility. This is building up energy for the upcoming rebound. Imagine, as the circulating supply of Bitcoin decreases and the chips gradually concentrate in the hands of long-term holders, as long as a small amount of liquidity flows in, the price is likely to be pushed higher. This market structure is favorable for subsequent upward movement.