#预测市场 After reading this article on the risks of AI manipulation in prediction markets, I have to say—this is a seriously underestimated issue.

The core pain point is quite clear: price signals in prediction markets are originally a convergence of dispersed information. But once they become news material and are repeatedly reported by the media, they turn into a lever that can be exploited. The abnormal pricing of Trump on Polymarket in 2024 is a typical example—even though it was ultimately verified as a rational bet by French investors, the very accusation of "manipulation" has already created a trust crisis.

What does this mean for copy traders? We need to interpret market signals more cautiously. We can't blindly follow price fluctuations in illiquid markets—research by Rhode and Strumpf has long proven that manipulation costs are low and difficult to reverse in low-liquidity environments. Prices that suddenly spike without fundamental support are likely attempts by large players to create momentum.

The practical response is: prioritize markets with active trading and sufficient liquidity, because here arbitrage opportunities are greater, and manipulators face high costs and difficulty sustaining their efforts. Also, correlate with other signal sources—polls, macro data, trading transparency indicators—for multi-dimensional validation. Don't let a single market price determine your position allocation, especially in highly sensitive events like elections that are easily amplified by public opinion.

The key takeaway: prediction markets are not the truth, only a reference. The first lesson in risk management is not to blindly trust any single signal.