#我的2026第一条帖

Before the tail truly starts, the number of bears is definitely the highest, and it’s not naturally formed; it’s been “nurtured” layer by layer by the market. Look at the monthly chart, which has already fallen dozens of times, forming an almost ground-hugging straight line. Logically, no one should have the courage to short at this point, but the reality is quite the opposite. The bearish sentiment is actually the most unified, and the reason is very simple:

First, trend memory.
People don’t trade based on price alone; they look at “what has happened in the past” in trading. After falling for one, two, or three years, the human brain has been trained to see rebounds as shorting opportunities. Even if the price stops falling, as long as it doesn’t surge, the bearish belief will automatically persist.

Second, the main players deliberately feed the market.
The most important thing for big funds at the bottom stage is not to pump the price up, but to make you “believe it will still fall.” Sideways trading, downward declines, fake breakouts, rapid surges followed by quick drops—all are repeatedly reinforcing the conclusion that upward movement is untrustworthy and shorting is safer.

Third, bears’ sense of security comes from “consensus.”
When everyone is saying it’s trash, worthless, lacks narrative, and no funds are flowing in, shorting becomes the most comfortable choice. Not because the logic is strong, but because “everyone thinks this way.” People treat consensus as a hedge against risk.

Fourth, the closer to the tail, the more severe the risk mismatch.
Prices are already at the floor, with very little room to go down, but huge potential to go up. However, the sentiment and position structure are completely opposite. Large short positions pile up, with leverage, emotions, and biases all aligned on the same side—only waiting for a trigger.

When you find that the monthly chart looks like a straight line, yet the whole market is still looking for reasons to short, it’s often not the end of the trend but an indication that the trend is about to enter its most irrational phase.