Here's something people often overlook when evaluating major market deals: timing is everything. That agreement finalized in late 2024? Nobody anticipated what was coming next. Lighter didn't even exist in the ecosystem back in April 2025—it wasn't on anyone's radar. Someone placed a bet before all the pieces fell into place, and it worked out handsomely. But let's be honest, it could've gone the other way just as easily. That's the reality of trading and positioning in volatile markets. The difference between a genius move and a costly mistake often comes down to luck intersecting with timing. People see the win and retroactively justify it as obvious, ignoring all the unpredictable variables that were floating around at the time.