Will the 2026 prediction market repeat the story of perpetual DEXs?

A fun thought for the New Year: the prediction market track seems to be following the same path that perpetual DEXs once did.

This cyclical pattern is particularly evident in a few aspects. First is the narrative cycle—these are not entirely new concepts. Perpetual DEXs played a leading role in the last bull market, and the current positions of Hyperliquid and Polymarket are, to some extent, a new interpretation of the old story. Product and market perception are continuously iterating, but fundamentally, they are still writing the same script.

Let’s look at what history says: during the wave of perpetual DEXs, dYdX and GMX were the absolute protagonists, followed by a bunch of imitators. Prediction markets are now quite similar—Hyperliquid and Polymarket are leading, while projects like Rollbit and WINR are trying to carve out their own niches, creating significant friction within the ecosystem.

The underlying logic behind this pattern is worth pondering. Each new narrative explosion is often not a completely new invention but a reactivation of old concepts in the face of new cycles, new technologies, and new users. Perpetual DEXs experienced a renaissance due to improvements in on-chain infrastructure and reduced trading costs, and prediction markets are now doing the same—more reliable on-chain oracles, more efficient liquidity aggregation, and better user education.

But this also means risks and opportunities coexist. History does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. Will prediction markets follow in the footsteps of perpetual DEXs—falling into homogeneous competition after explosive growth, ultimately being harvested by a few leading players? Or will they find a truly differentiated path and achieve breakthroughs? It depends on whether there are genuine innovators in the ecosystem willing to break the existing framework.