2026-01-01 03:20:16

Bitcoin has slid from its all-time high of $126,000 down to below $90,000, and the entire altcoin sector is echoing with cries of despair. Watching this scene, I can’t help but reevaluate what game this market is really playing.

I still remember when I first entered the scene in 2017, veterans often mentioned one term—"Four-Year Cycle." At the time, I was somewhat skeptical, thinking it might just be a story born out of survivor bias. It wasn’t until this year, when I saw Bitcoin surge to a new high of $126,000 in October and then sharply drop below $90,000, that I truly understood: market laws are market laws; they never change just because of someone’s subjective will.

The current pervasive anxiety in the market is identical to the feeling when a cycle is about to end. But this time, will it really be different?

**Emotional Rollercoaster**

Two months ago, the market was still immersed in a collective optimistic atmosphere. Policy shifts, institutional funds pouring in through ETFs, and various positive news bombarding the scene all felt like the rhythm of a bull market.

But by October, the trend suddenly turned. On November 5th, Bitcoin broke through the psychological barrier of $100,000, dropping over 7% in a single day. Market sentiment shifted rapidly—from greed straight to fear. The panic index even fell to 20, hitting a near six-month low.

What’s more painful is that even long-term holders couldn’t sit still. Over the past month, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold off more than 320,000 BTC. This signal is very clear: the market’s confidence has wavered.

**The Truth Behind the Leverage Retreat**

One of the main drivers behind this decline is the massive withdrawal of leveraged funds. On October 11th, the market experienced the largest forced liquidation in history, with over $19 billion liquidated across major global exchanges. Once the leverage game collapses, the market’s inherent fragility is fully exposed.

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MechanicalMartel

· 12h ago

Is the four-year cycle narrative still valid? I increasingly feel it's just armchair strategizing after the fact. Long-term holders have all exited; how strong must that signal be? Leverage liquidations hit 19 billion, that's the real "death by exposure." From 12.6 to 90,000, the sense of weakness is overwhelming. Who still believes in a bull market rhythm? Is this wave a restart, or is it completely over? It's really hard to tell.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle thing, I didn't believe it before, but now I truly do. From 12.6 to 90,000, riding this roller coaster is exhausting.

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SerumSurfer

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle is back again. Can we avoid it this time? --- From 12.6K to 90K, even long-term holders are starting to cut losses... Really scared now. --- Leverage exploded once and now a second time? Can't learn, everyone. --- Even with ETF support, it still crashes; institutional funds are not the saviors. --- 190 billion in liquidation. Is this what market rules look like? I just smile and stay silent. --- Bro, are you still bottom fishing in this wave? --- The feeling of anxiety is indeed a bit familiar, it seems like it's happening again. --- Are people still playing with altcoins? Now it's all meme coins. --- From collective optimism to a panic index of 20, the speed of this switch is truly outrageous. --- It's just a cycle, blame who? Still, it's because we didn't control the leverage well.

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YieldWhisperer

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle is here again, and it's really that accurate... This time, it's a different story. Long-term holders have all left, what does that mean? The bottom hasn't been reached yet, right? Leverage liquidations are the most fun, with air coins dying one after another. From 12.6 to 90,000, my altcoins were wiped out directly, it's that kind of unfunny. Believe it or not, this wave is a cycle repetition, and it will happen again next time.

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MevHunter

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle is really happening again... But this time, dropping from 12.6 to 90,000 feels a bit too fast? Long-term holders are all selling off, what does that mean? It means no one dares to gamble anymore. When the leverage exploded to 19 billion on that day, I was still watching the market, and my mindset completely collapsed. I really want to know what the bottom will be this time, otherwise I won't dare to buy the rebound. Wait, do you think this time might really be different? Isn't there some policy favorable news? It sounds worse than the 2017 wave, almost all altcoins have died out. This is the nightmare that comes around every four years.

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CounterIndicator

· 12h ago

Here it comes again. This wave of decline was indeed fierce, but those who got liquidated on leverage deserve it. Playing with fire will get you burned. Long-term holders selling 320,000 coins indicate that big players are also scared. This is getting interesting. The four-year cycle theory has been heard so many times it’s almost numb, but it’s actually quite accurate. I’m convinced. Altcoins are now just a foil; waiting to see where the bottom is will be the key. Will this time really be different? Honestly, who knows. Anyway, I’ve already bottomed out. Brothers, the psychological barrier of $100,000 was broken so easily. This wave is not over yet. The shift from greed to fear happens in an instant. The market is so real and brutal. Leverage liquidations hit 19 billion, and this is the real scene of cutting leeks.

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