2026-01-01 01:40:05

Here's a thought worth exploring: what if the actual bear market cycle kicked off at the end of 2024—not before, but right then? That would mean we've already pushed through a full twelve months of it. If the math checks out, we might be looking at the finish line sooner than most people realize.

Think about it this way. Market cycles don't always reset at calendar years. Sometimes the real inflection point comes quietly, buried in what looks like choppy trading. By that logic, those early 2025 months? We were already deep in bear territory without realizing it. The brutal pullbacks, the sideways action, the fear—all of it could've been year one of a grinding downturn.

If that timeline holds, the implications shift everything. A one-year bear market is brutal, sure. But psychologically and technically, it means we're not staring at years of pain ahead. We could be watching the early stages of a recovery unfold right now.

The catch? This only works if you accept that late 2024 marked the real beginning. Plenty of analysts would argue otherwise. But for traders watching the current price action and sentiment, it's worth sitting with this scenario. Because if we're already near the other side of this cycle, the positioning and strategy change dramatically.

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ChainBrain

· 6h ago

Hmm... this logic sounds tempting, but I always feel something's off. This retroactive definition of the starting point is a bit like armchair quarterbacking. Anyway, when prices are rising, no one says the cycle has already begun.

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TestnetScholar

· 6h ago

This logic is a bit forced... Just trying to comfort yourself by redefining the bear market timeline? Really? Do you really know if it's the bottom or not? It's about time to face reality. Don't always think there's an invisible savior. Just hear it and forget it. Don't take it seriously. Waiting to be taught a lesson by reality.

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 6h ago

Bro, your logic is a bit crazy... Are you saying that we've actually been浪ing in the bear market for a whole year? Thinking this way does make some sense; if that's true, we're actually not far from a breakout. But to be honest, that's just the highest form of self-comfort, haha. --- Wait, do you really believe that the wave in December was the start of the bear market? I feel like that's just hindsight. --- I have some thoughts, but they're just thoughts; in the end, it really depends on how things unfold later. --- I've heard too much about cycle theory, but ultimately, it still depends on the price of the coin... --- Alright, then I'll just pray that we can turn things around this year according to your logic.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 6h ago

Ha, I like this logic. If it started at the end of the year, then it doesn't seem so hopeless now. --- Wait, does this mean we've been in a bear market all along? Why does it feel like no one told me? --- If that's really the case, I would have made a lot of money. I would have been out of the market long ago. --- I just want to know who can be sure that the end of 2024 is truly the starting point. It all feels like after-the-fact armchair analysis. --- Another argument that "We've actually already bottomed out." I've heard too many times. --- But on the other hand, if we follow this logic, entering the market now doesn't seem so risky? --- Nonsense. The most ridiculous thing about the market is the after-the-fact rationalizations. Why didn't anyone say this back then? --- The reason for the mental breakdown is this uncertainty. Who knows where the real bottom is?

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