Is Bitcoin heading toward its first red year after a halving event? The data suggests it could happen. Historically, post-halving periods have brought strong rallies, but this time might be different. We're seeing market dynamics shift—macro conditions, institutional positioning, and on-chain flows all point to potential headwinds. What's changing in the typical halving narrative? Are we entering uncharted territory for BTC price action, or is this just noise in a longer bull cycle? The next months will be crucial for determining whether Bitcoin can defy its historical patterns or if we're finally seeing the exception that proves the rule.