#数字资产动态追踪 The U.S. dollar is dropping quite sharply. The quote of 6.82 is nearly 3% below the official exchange rate of 7.0. When it returns to the level of 7.4 from half a year ago, almost no one notices that assets have already depreciated by 10%.

The price of USDAT is essentially anchored by two points— the official USD to RMB exchange rate, and the premium or discount within the crypto circle. What is the current situation? The U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, and the relative weakening of the dollar is almost a given. This actually sounds good for RMB holders—their purchasing power has increased. In other words, with the same RMB, they can buy more USDT, and consequently, more Bitcoin.
But there is also a counteracting force at play. Large-scale RMB users in the crypto circle are selling U to cash out, causing USDT to RMB to show a clear negative premium, falling below 1:7. Calculate this—those who entered a year ago buying crypto with RMB now have about 10% more purchasing power out of thin air. Unfortunately, this advantage is being eroded by another layer of depreciation.
Putting these signs together, the outline of a bear market becomes very clear. The market is sluggish, people are withdrawing, information heat has significantly declined, and those big influencers surviving on ad revenue now have to look for jobs. This is not a reversal signal; rather, it indicates that the inertia of the bear market is far from over.
From another perspective, this actually gives us a window to bottom out by the end of next year. The true bottom might be even lower than you think—Bitcoin at 40,000 or even 60,000 is possible. The key is to wait until the bottom structure truly forms; only then is it the time to add heavily to positions. $BTC These rebounds are just false alarms; the downward trend cannot be changed, and each rebound instead becomes a new opportunity for short positions.
Speaking of small-cap coins, $ZEC and BCH, we shorted them at high levels earlier, and the gains were pretty good. If there’s still a chance to probe the top later, continuing to participate isn’t a big problem. Other small coins also have similar operational space. Stick to your trading plan daily, and that’s how the market will unfold.