Could Joby Aviation's Next Milestone Unlock Massive Growth Potential?

The Broken Promise That’s Now Becoming Reality

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has been a classic case of overpromise and underperformance. When it went public via SPAC merger at $10.62 per share, the company projected reaching $2.05 billion in revenue by 2026. Reality? It generated just $136,000 in 2024 revenue while burning through a $608 million net loss.

Yet here’s the plot twist: the company might actually be onto something transformational. Trading around $13 today, Joby’s underlying technology and strategic positioning could represent a fundamentally different “net force formula” in aerospace innovation—where multiple factors (FAA approval, manufacturing partnerships, commercial deployment) align to create exponential momentum.

Why Joby’s S4 Actually Matters

The distinction lies in engineering efficiency. Joby’s S4 eVTOL aircraft carries four passengers plus one pilot, travels 150 miles per charge at 200 mph maximum speed, and uses a revolutionary tilt-rotor propeller system that seamlessly switches between lifting and cruising modes.

Compare this to Archer Aviation’s (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight competitor: same passenger count, but only 100-mile range, 150 mph top speed, and heavier construction due to separate propellers for lifting versus cruising. The architectural advantage gives Joby superior energy efficiency—a critical variable in the nascent eVTOL industry.

The company isn’t just building aircraft in a vacuum. It holds a $131 million DOD contract (two aircraft delivered so far), operates a growing international test fleet (U.A.E., South Korea, Japan), and has secured backing from Toyota and Delta Air Lines. The Uber Elevate division acquisition in 2020 plus the Blade helicopter service acquisition in August 2025 position Joby to control both the technology layer and the customer-facing air taxi platform.

The 2026 Inflection Point

Analysts project Joby’s revenue trajectory at $40 million (2025), $113 million (2026), and $207 million (2027)—assuming FAA full commercial approval arrives in 2026 as anticipated. Simultaneously, inaugural Dubai air taxi service would launch the same year.

These aren’t abstract benchmarks. They represent the critical “net force” that could accelerate the entire business model: regulatory green light + commercial operations + revenue generation simultaneously.

The Market Size Narrative

By 2045, the global eVTOL market could accommodate 30,000 aircraft ferrying three billion passengers annually, according to Eve Air Mobility’s projections. If Joby captures one-third market share (10,000 aircraft/year at ~$1.3 million per unit), annual revenue could reach $13 billion.

At current market cap of $12.7 billion with 2027 projected sales of $207 million, Joby appears expensive at 61x sales. But if it achieves $10 billion annual revenue by 2045 at just 13x sales multiple, that market cap reaches $130 billion—a 10x return from today’s valuation. Higher market share or sustained premium pricing could push returns even further.

The Risk Is Real

This remains a speculative position. FAA approval timelines could slip. Commercial demand might materialize slower than projections. Competitors like Archer, Lilium, and others won’t concede market share quietly. Joby’s cash burn and path to profitability remain unproven.

But for patient investors comfortable with aerospace and regulatory uncertainty, Joby represents a rare intersection of first-mover advantage, differentiated technology, major partnership commitments, and genuine commercial deployment within 12-18 months. The underlying “net force” of these factors aligning simultaneously could make the difference between a failed SPAC and a generational opportunity.