Position Your Portfolio: Which ETFs Win as Holiday Shopping Surges to 159M Shoppers

The final Saturday before Christmas has always represented a critical inflection point for retail performance, and 2024’s “Super Saturday” data confirms this trend remains potent. The National Retail Federation reports that an estimated 158.9 million consumers participated in the end-of-year shopping rush — marking a 1.1% increase from 157.2 million the prior year and eclipsing the 2022 record of 158.5 million. These numbers underscore a resilient consumer base willing to spend during the holiday stretch, creating meaningful tailwinds for retail-focused exchange-traded funds.

However, beneath this optimistic headline lies a more complex narrative. Recent consumer behavior analysis reveals what analysts call the “tactical shopper” — buyers increasingly prioritizing quality and meaningful purchases over discount hunting. This shift, combined with macroeconomic headwinds including inflationary pressures, tariff concerns, and softer labor market conditions, suggests that retail growth will be driven less by volume and more by price realization.

The Two-Speed Retail Environment

S&P Global Ratings projects U.S. holiday sales (November-December) will expand 4% year-over-year, yet this figure masks underlying weakness: consumer staples spending may remain essentially flat due to eroding confidence and economic uncertainty. This creates a paradox — retailers moving more goods at higher price points rather than experiencing genuine volume surges. The implication for ETF investors is clear: selective positioning matters more than broad exposure.

The silver lining emerges from mega-cap retail leaders. Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have successfully captured “trade-down” traffic — the phenomenon where higher-income shoppers migrate toward value-oriented retailers during uncertain periods. This defense mechanism ensures that even as discretionary spending weakens, essential retail categories remain supported. Omnichannel champions like Amazon (AMZN) amplify this advantage through seamless fulfillment capabilities and last-minute delivery options, features that prove decisive during compressed holiday shopping windows.

Looking forward into 2026, Fitch Ratings anticipates modestly positive retail sales dynamics, though growth will likely decelerate as tariff-related inflation moderates. The winning environment will reward efficiency, pricing power, and customer loyalty ecosystems — precisely the strengths embedded in top-tier retail ETF holdings.

ETF Solutions for Holiday Momentum and Beyond

Given this landscape, select ETFs offer compelling risk-adjusted exposure:

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) — Diversified Retail Exposure With $248 million in assets, RTH provides access to the world’s 26 largest and most actively traded retailers. The fund’s portfolio is anchored by AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%). Year-to-date performance stands at +11.6%, with an expense ratio of 35 basis points. Recent session volume reached 0.01 million shares.

ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) — Pure-Play E-Commerce Exposure This $179.17 billion average market cap fund captures 19 companies at the frontier of digital commerce. Top holdings consist of AMZN (23.35%), Alibaba (BABA) (11.44%), and eBay (EBAY) (8.11%). ONLN’s year-to-date surge of 31.9% reflects the market’s confidence in omnichannel and pure e-commerce players. The fund charges 58 basis points annually and traded 0.02 million shares in the latest session.

Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) — International E-Commerce Diversification With $51 million in net assets, EBIZ spans 41 selective global e-commerce operators, providing geographic and sector diversification. Holdings include Expedia (EXPE) (6.10%), Shopify (SHOP) (5.57%), and BABA (4.87%). The fund has advanced 19.4% year-to-date with a 50 basis point expense ratio and 0.01 million shares traded recently.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) — Essential Goods Stability This fund, managing $1.33 billion in net assets, offers broad-based exposure to 97 U.S. consumer staples stocks. WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and Procter and Gamble (PG) (10.05%) represent the fund’s top positions. FSTA has delivered a modest +2.4% year-to-date return while maintaining a very low 8 basis point expense ratio. Volume recently totaled 0.19 million shares.

Strategic Takeaway for Holiday Shopping Season

The record Saturday quotes and consumer traffic patterns validate continued retail momentum, yet investors should distinguish between volume-driven narratives and actual earnings support. The shift toward trade-down behavior and price-driven growth benefits defensive, efficient retailers disproportionately — precisely the companies overweighted in funds like RTH and FSTA. Meanwhile, pure-play e-commerce exposure through ONLN and EBIZ captures the structural shift toward digital channels accelerated by convenience-seeking holiday shoppers. A balanced approach combining consumer staples stability with selective e-commerce exposure aligns portfolio positioning with both the opportunities and constraints embedded in 2025-2026 retail dynamics.