Which Mining Stock Delivered the Strongest Returns? FCX's 35% Surge Over Months Tells the Story

When comparing mining equities performance over recent months, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stands out with impressive gains. The company’s 35.3% appreciation over three months has significantly outpaced both the Mining-Non Ferrous sector’s 25.9% increase and the broader S&P 500’s 4.7% climb during the same timeframe. This performance gap raises an important question: what’s fueling this momentum?

The Copper Advantage: From Hours of Trading to Months of Tailwinds

The answer lies primarily in copper’s extraordinary price trajectory. As the metal experiences record-high valuations, Freeport—which derives the majority of its revenue from copper extraction—has captured substantial upside. The company reported a 38-cent increase in Average Realized Price (ARP) for copper in its last quarter versus the prior year, reflecting the strength of global copper dynamics.

What’s driving this extended copper rally? A combination of factors creates a perfect storm: tight global supply, persistent supply chain challenges, and surging demand from technology and energy transition sectors. The automotive electrification trend has emerged as a particularly powerful demand catalyst. As electric vehicle adoption accelerates across the next decade, copper consumption per vehicle significantly exceeds that of traditional combustion engines, positioning the metal for sustained growth.

China’s economic positioning further reinforces copper’s structural demand outlook. The nation’s expanding EV fleet and alternative energy investments continue to absorb increasing copper volumes, supporting price stability from hours of intraday volatility to months-long uptrends.

Operational Catalysts Reshaping the Supply-Demand Picture

Beyond market dynamics, Freeport’s own operational initiatives are reshaping the investment thesis. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia—a crucial production asset—has faced operational interruptions that constrained supply and indirectly supported copper prices. However, management is actively addressing this situation.

The company plans to restart and expand underground production at Grasberg while increasing milling throughput. More significantly, Freeport substantially completed construction of a new greenfield smelter facility in Eastern Java during 2024, with full operational ramp-up expected by end of 2025. This infrastructure investment positions the company to capture higher-margin processing economics.

Additionally, development of the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district is progressing, with production commencement targeted for 2030. These multi-year initiatives represent a long-dated growth pipeline that extends well beyond near-term market cycles.

The Competitive Landscape: How FCX Stacks Against Peers

While FCX carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), investors should contextualize this rating within the broader mining sector performance. Comparable names—such as Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC, Zacks Rank #1), Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM, Zacks Rank #2), and Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX, Zacks Rank #2)—show the breadth of opportunity across mining equities.

KGC’s consensus earnings estimate of $1.67 per share suggests 145.59% growth, with the stock delivering a 223.9% return over the trailing twelve months. FSM’s pinned estimates indicate 65.22% year-over-year earnings expansion, supporting a 145.6% annual gain. EQX similarly projects 170% earnings growth, though with higher forecast volatility.

These comparisons illustrate that while Freeport may not hold the highest analyst rating, the mining sector broadly is experiencing significant revaluation—suggesting FCX’s current positioning could be defensive rather than stretched.

Looking Ahead: From Near-Term Strength to Long-Cycle Positioning

The investment case for FCX rests on a durable foundation. From hours of tactical trading opportunities around macro announcements to months-long strategic positioning around EV adoption curves, copper and Freeport’s role in the supply chain present multiple time horizons for investors to consider.

The convergence of tight supply, record pricing, structural demand from electrification, and Freeport’s own operational improvements creates an environment where the recent 35% rally may represent early-stage recognition rather than full repricing. Investors weighing mining exposure should evaluate whether the current valuation reflects both the near-term supply dynamics and the multi-year production growth trajectory ahead.