Corn Inventory Pressure Weighs as Prices Drop Sharply Monday

Corn futures experienced a significant pullback Monday, with losses ranging from 7 to 8 cents per bushel amid reduced trading volume following the holiday period. The national spot price for corn declined 6¾ cents to settle at $3.99¾, reflecting broader weakness in the commodities complex.

Export Activity and Corn Stock Movements

Export inspection data revealed the holiday’s impact on shipment volumes, with corn stock movements showing 1.301 million metric tons (51.2 million bushels) cleared during the week ending Christmas. While this represented a 25.53% week-over-week decrease—typical for the holiday season—year-over-year comparisons told a different story, showing a 43.37% increase suggesting robust demand fundamentals.

Geographic distribution highlighted Mexico as the leading destination with 400,140 MT of corn stock received, followed by Colombia at 221,240 MT and Japan with 219,137 MT. Marketing year totals have now reached 25.57 million metric tons (1.006 billion bushels), marking a remarkable 66.17% jump compared to the same period last year and setting a historical benchmark as the first year to surpass 1 billion bushels before the September-to-August marketing year concludes.

Ethanol Production Shows Softness

The energy complex shared the weakness, as EIA data Monday afternoon showed ethanol production retreating 36,000 barrels per day to 1.095 million bpd for the week ending December 19. Ethanol inventories climbed 175,000 barrels to 22.528 million barrels, while export activity increased 28,000 bpd to 219,000 bpd. Refiner utilization of ethanol gained 6,000 bpd to 912,000 bpd, suggesting maintained demand from the fuel sector despite production declines.

Futures Contract Pricing

Across the forward curve, March 26 corn futures closed at $4.42¼, down 7¾ cents, while nearby cash corn settled 6¾ cents lower at $3.99¾. May 26 contracts declined 7½ cents to $4.50¾, and July 26 futures fell 7¼ cents to close at $4.57, indicating consistent selling pressure throughout the contract stack as traders reassess positions in light of the export corn stock data and reduced holiday-season trading dynamics.