#Strategy加码BTC配置 $ETH $BTC $ZEC ⚠ Are US stocks peaking at overvaluation? The secret battle between the Federal Reserve and politics, and how the crypto market will respond in 2026

Ladies and gentlemen, the US stock market in 2025 has indeed been on a strong rise— the S&P 500 has been soaring, but now the tide is turning. There are warnings from the Federal Reserve: stock prices are already quite overvalued.
The numbers are a bit shocking. The Shiller Price-to-Earnings ratio has surged to 40.74, just a step away from the internet bubble peak of 44.19. Historically, this indicator exceeding 40 has been rare, but each time it has not ended well—either a 20% drop or a complete collapse. Over the past 155 years, the Shiller PE has only exceeded 30 six times, with the first five all marking the start of bear markets. The Damocles sword hangs overhead, and no one can escape.
Even more dramatic is the political battle brewing. Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve for spending 2.5 billion on headquarters renovations, even threatening to sue, and has demanded interest rates be cut to 1%. Currently, the Fed’s rates are stuck between 3.5% and 3.75%, and in 2026, it’s only hinting at one rate cut. This political pressure is directly tearing apart market nerves.
Why should the crypto community care about this? Because the direction is clear: when rate cuts happen, massive funds will seek high-risk, high-reward assets, with cryptocurrencies being the first in line; but political interference with the Fed’s independence will cause market panic, leading to bloodbaths. Last time, expectations of rate cuts fluctuated, and Bitcoin dropped over 30% in a month, with 180,000 liquidations. This time, with such a big play, volatility will definitely be even more intense.
So, the current multiple-choice question is brutal: can mainstream coins with real liquidity and practical use cases withstand the pressure, or will the air coins that rely solely on hype be the ones to suffer?
The question is: can Trump really push interest rates down to 1%? Will 2026 be a year of celebration or the prelude to a crash? Can your coins survive this test? See you in the comments.