2025-12-30 21:21:34

Bitcoin's path to $150k might be tougher than expected. Recent prediction models suggest there's only a 38% probability of Bitcoin reaching that level over the next 12 months. The bull case is still there, but market dynamics and macro factors are creating more headwinds than tailwinds right now. What's your take on this? Do you think Bitcoin can still punch through to six figures, or should we be adjusting our targets? The data keeps evolving – worth keeping an eye on as we head into the next cycle.

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TeaTimeTrader

· 01-02 21:00

38% probability? I think this data itself is fake, the prediction model should have been thrown into the trash long ago --- Macroeconomic factors, to put it simply, just haven't been in place yet, don't overthink it --- Six figures, what's so hard about that? Just wait patiently, I can't run away anyway --- This kind of probability prediction is just for listening, if you take it seriously, you'll lose --- Bitcoin is like this, ups and downs, 150,000 is really not a dream, just a matter of time --- What’s the point of data evolving? Aren't they all just post-hoc explanations? --- Headwinds come and go, actually it just means there are no clear signals, no one dares to say --- Adjust the target? I’m not adjusting it, anyway, I can't come up with a reasonable explanation --- Let’s wait and see, it's too early to say anything now --- Can you trust the probability given by the model? It’s not even as accurate as flipping a coin

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DataBartender

· 01-02 20:40

What’s the 38% probability? Basically, it’s about flipping a coin. Instead of guessing blindly, it’s better to pay attention to macro shifts. --- Listening to the 150k thing is fine, but the real profit comes from catching those unexpected reversals. --- The model is back... Every time it says low probability, the price moves in the opposite direction. I don’t buy this approach. --- What’s going on? Starting to lower the target again? I think it’s not that the coin is too hard to rise, but that predictions are inherently unreliable. --- The macro headwinds are real, but you always overestimate their impact on on-chain cycles. --- Six figures is just a matter of time. It all depends on when the next cycle truly kicks off... It’s a bit early to worry about that now.

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FOMOmonster

· 2025-12-31 06:21

38% chance? To be honest, it's a bit uncertain, but I still bet one hundred thousand yuan. --- The macroeconomic explanation is always the same, anyway I just hodl without moving. --- 150k is too greedy. I just want to steadily reach six figures now; everything else is just clouds. --- Data changes every day, and it's more reliable to look at on-chain capital flows. I really don't believe in prediction models. --- This kind of probability analysis is pointless. The crypto world is a confidence game; it’s about who can hold on the longest. --- Adjusting targets? Just kidding. Continuing to add positions is actually the right move.

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AirdropFatigue

· 2025-12-30 21:51

A 38% chance of telling the truth is a bit harsh, but this data itself is also changing. Everyone says to adjust expectations, but I think that's just an excuse for manipulation. Six figures can be reached anytime, the key is when. Macroeconomic factors change daily, and prediction models are just that—models. It's better to trust your own judgment than to rely on them. It feels like the crypto world always goes through this cycle—first bearish, then rebounds, just a cycle. 150k is indeed uncertain, but don't rush to give up.

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StakeTillRetire

· 2025-12-30 21:49

38% probability? It's not even halfway there... NGL, these data are a bit uncomfortable to look at, but it's not like giving up completely. Six figures can definitely be broken, just the timeline might need to be extended. No one can be certain about macro things, just keep holding. Another prediction model... how did this thing say last year? Breaking 150k is just a matter of time, so what's there to panic about? The model keeps changing its stance every day, I only look at on-chain data to speak.

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FlatTax

· 2025-12-30 21:49

38% probability? Honestly, I really don’t understand how this data was calculated. --- 150k? Haha, let’s wait and see. It’s too early to say now. --- Macroeconomic pressures are indeed significant, but this is the best opportunity to buy the dip. --- Six figures can definitely be reached; the only question is when. --- Model predictions—whether accurate or not—is another story. The market has already exceeded expectations countless times. --- Adjust expectations? No way, just hold on tight. --- This is just the beginning. The next cycle will prove everything.

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PumpDoctrine

· 2025-12-30 21:47

38%？This data looks suspicious no matter how you analyze it... Such probability predictions have never been accurate in previous years. --- Honestly, 150k is a bit overhyped. Let’s break 100k first before bragging. --- Another one of these "probability models," always confident and then proven wrong. I choose to ignore it. --- The term "macro factors" is overused; on-chain data is more authentic. --- Why adjust the target? Just HODL coins and that’s it. --- Top institutions are still accumulating; a 38% probability actually gives me confidence. --- Such predictions are less useful than just observing the movements of big players... --- As long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t have a major crisis, six figures is just a matter of time. Why bother with the timeline?

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 2025-12-30 21:38

38% probability? That just means there's a 62% chance remaining. Why always focus on the pessimistic side? 150k is indeed uncertain, but is a six-figure amount really that far away? Who can fully predict macroeconomic factors? Instead of adjusting the goal, it's better to adjust your mindset.

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MevHunter

· 2025-12-30 21:36

38% probability? Bro, how did you calculate this data? Feels too pessimistic. --- No matter what the probability is, as long as it hasn't broken 100,000, keep buying. --- Macroeconomic factors are indeed annoying, but history shows that these prediction models will be proven wrong in six months. --- Reaching six figures is just a matter of time, why rush? --- Really? I thought it was a sure thing. Looks like I need to keep observing. --- Instead of looking at these probabilities, it's better to look at on-chain data, which is more honest. --- The 150k target is probably just a shitpost, 150k is a more reasonable expectation, everyone. --- The risk has indeed increased, but isn't this the perfect time to accumulate?

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ParanoiaKing

· 2025-12-30 21:35

38% chance? Sounds like the model is playing the numbers game again; these predictions are unreliable. I still believe in six figures, but the timeline might need to be pushed back—no rush. Macroeconomic factors are indeed annoying, but when has BTC ever been scared? Let's see in the next cycle. These data change every day; I only watch on-chain data and whale movements. Prediction models are just clouds. Adjust the target? Not really. I'm still optimistic in the long term; in the short term, just consider it as accumulation.

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