Market expectations are now heavily skewed toward a rate pause when the Federal Reserve meets in January. According to prediction market Polymarket, there's an 87% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady rather than cutting them. This data point matters because crypto markets have historically responded sharply to Fed decisions—lower rates typically support riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, while rate hikes create headwinds. With most traders and market participants now pricing in a pause, the question becomes whether the Fed will signal future cuts or maintain a hawkish stance. This uncertainty is worth monitoring closely as we head into the new year, especially for those managing crypto portfolios alongside traditional assets.