Despite the positive background, BTC has yet to overcome the psychological barrier at $90 thousand and stay above it. Conversely, traditional markets demonstrated confident dynamics: the S&P 500 and other major American indices continued to hold near all-time highs, and gold on the same day hit a record in $4550 per troy ounce. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been moving within a fairly wide range from $80 600 to $94 600 since November 21, with two key levels: support near $83 600 and resistance around $90 660. A particularly dense options cluster is located precisely in the zone of $85-90K, which explains the increased volatility and instability of breakouts. Under such conditions, price behavior appears unpredictable: with weak spot demand and no new money entering the market, liquidity is often gathered through sharp downward movements aimed at triggering stop-losses. Last week, it became clear that Bitcoin is ending 2025 quite differently from how it started: instead of a triumph, it is cautiously balancing around the $88 000 mark. At the beginning of the year, the market rejoiced; the arrival of Donald Trump’s administration, promising to turn the US into a global crypto capital, gave a strong impulse, and BTC confidently moved toward new heights, with Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization reaching 57%. But the picture changed sharply in the fourth quarter: for the first time, Bitcoin lagged behind traditional markets, and expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy for 2026 also shifted. Overall, positive factors remain for the crypto industry: the Trump administration continues to pursue friendly regulatory policies, the volume of deals in the crypto sector nearly quadrupled in 2025, investigations into several crypto companies were discontinued, a presidential decree on stablecoin regulation was signed, and 11 crypto firms successfully conducted IPOs. Nevertheless, in the short term, a bearish background persists: weak institutional demand via ETFs, negative on-chain metrics, and pressure on large corporate holders create serious obstacles to growth. The medium-term outlook remains constructive, with the main triggers for the next wave of growth being the resumption of steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, progress in US crypto market regulation including legislative initiatives at the federal level, and a change in the overall economic environment, especially after a potential leadership change at the Fed and the start of a new rate-cutting cycle. In the short term, risks remain high: the probability of a correction to the $70–$75 thousand zone for Bitcoin persists, especially if December’s calm transitions into an January liquidation vacuum. The only scenario that sharply reduces these risks is a confident breakout above $90 600 and then holding the price above $94 600, which would signal a return of buyer interest and a restart of the bullish momentum. During the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, forecasts are difficult, as many market participants will be on holiday, increasing manipulation risks. Looking back at last year, fluctuations over 10 days were within 10%: Bitcoin first strengthened, then lost all gains, and a more confident rally began on Monday, January 13, with a 22% increase. Buyers need to pass $94 600 as quickly as possible; otherwise, sellers will push lower. Key events for the upcoming week include the release of the Fed minutes on Tuesday, December 30, and data on the labor market and business activity, which will be published on Wednesday and Friday. On Tuesday, market attention will focus on the FOMC minutes, which may provide additional insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy—especially important amid recent rate decisions. Any signals of tightening or easing could influence the dollar and stock indices. On Wednesday, December 31, data on initial unemployment claims with a forecast of 214 thousand will be released, helping to assess the current state of the labor market. On Friday, January 2, the PMI manufacturing activity index with a forecast of 51.8 will be published. During the New Year holidays, trading will be less active, but the release of the Fed minutes and labor market data could trigger short-term volatility; signals of possible Fed easing will support stock indices and the crypto market.