Looking at the two recent messages together, the market logic becomes clear.

First, let's look at the external developments. The US Treasury market has sent positive signals—volatility may record its largest annual decline since 2009, and the fear index has fallen to a near two-month low. What does this mean? The most sensitive indicator of the global financial market is signaling stability. The effects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are becoming evident, concerns about a hard landing are easing, and risk appetite among large funds is warming up.

For cryptocurrencies, this is a significant positive. When traditional finance operates smoothly, funds are more willing to spill over to seek higher-yield investment opportunities. As the frontier of risk assets, cryptocurrencies tend to benefit in such environments, according to historical patterns.

However, looking at ETH's chart, the situation appears a bit "incongruous."

ETH price has been oscillating around $2935, with the 4-hour chart showing a somewhat awkward position—there's significant resistance in the $2950-3000 range, with multiple failed attempts and insufficient volume; support currently lies at $2900-2920, which is holding for now, but the technical indicators are already starting to fall behind, with momentum waning, and the white and yellow lines showing signs of turning downward at high levels.

The market is waiting for a decision—whether to break through resistance following the macro optimism or to retest support. The answer may be hidden in the next few candlesticks.