Bitcoin Analyst Warns Against Repeating Past Cycle Playbooks as BTC Trades Near $87,661

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin analyst warns of “biggest financial mistake of the decade” for those still using this common theory Original Link: Analyst and creator of the ‘Bitcoin Quantile Model,’ Plan C, just posted a bundle of charts that pushed back on the idea of repeating cycle playbooks as Bitcoin trades around $87,661.

The set frames a macro mix where business-cycle gauges remain weak while hard assets, led by gold, retain demand. That combination can change the timing of rallies and pullbacks even if Bitcoin’s longer-run direction holds.

Plan C commented:

“Assuming this Bitcoin cycle must be EXACTLY the same as the previous Bitcoin bull market could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade.”

Two of the charts plot Bitcoin against a PMI-style “business cycle” series. They show Bitcoin holding up while the cycle measure trends lower.

The latest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reading for November was 48.2, a contraction print. The next release, covering December, is due in early January.

The report described continued softness in demand and broader manufacturing conditions consistent with a sub-50 reading.

That split sets up a test for 2026 pricing

If markets lean toward easier policy and looser financial conditions, Bitcoin can trade more like a liquidity-sensitive asset than a growth-sensitive one. That could allow strength to persist even with PMIs below 50.

If that liquidity support does not materialize, resilience that is not echoed by the business-cycle series leaves less room for error. Retracements can arrive faster.

Plan C’s “Bitcoin Quantile Model” shifts the discussion away from analogies and toward a statistical “where are we in history?” approach. Rather than issuing a point forecast, the model places today’s price inside Bitcoin’s long-run distribution and maps quantile bands across horizons.

In the snapshot aligned with spot near $87,620, Bitcoin sits near the 30th quantile. It is below the model’s median lane despite trading near prior-cycle highs in dollar terms.

The quantile bands also provide a structured way to talk about paths rather than targets.

Using $87,661 as the reference level, the chart’s 3-month bands span roughly $80,000 at the 15th quantile and $127,000 at the median. Upper bands sit around $164,000 (85th) and $207,000 (95th).

The 1-year bands shown are about $103,000 (15th), $164,000 (50th), $205,000 (85th), and $253,000 (95th).

These levels are distribution waypoints, not hit-rate claims. Still, they anchor how far price would need to move to change its placement within the framework.