Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: There Is No XRP Supply Shock on Exchanges—Analyst Says Original Link:

A Crypto Analyst’s Perspective on XRP Supply Concerns

A crypto analyst has pushed back against growing claims that XRP is facing a supply shock, arguing that such fears are being overstated.

According to the analyst, approximately 16 billion XRP is already sitting on exchanges, ready to be traded. This amount, he argues, would be sufficient for buyers seeking exposure to XRP in the current market.

Moving XRP Takes Seconds, Not Days

Even when XRP is held off exchanges, supply can quickly reappear. The analyst explained that anyone holding XRP in a private wallet can send it to an exchange in just three to four seconds. Because of this speed, available supply can change almost instantly depending on market conditions.

Order Books Change Fast

XRP’s order books are not fixed—they expand and shrink all the time. Sometimes, a $10 million buy order is enough to push prices higher. Other times, even $100 million in buying fails to stop a decline. This demonstrates how fluid XRP trading is and why price movements cannot be explained by supply alone.

Analyst Responds to Supply Doubts

When questions arose about the accuracy of exchange balance numbers, the analyst responded clearly. He stated that the figures being shared should be viewed as a lower estimate, meaning the real amount of XRP on exchanges is likely higher. According to him, not all exchange wallets are publicly visible.

What a Real Supply Shock Would Look Like

The analyst also explained what would actually qualify as a supply shock. In his view, it would require an extreme event—such as someone attempting to buy 30 billion XRP at once. Short of that, he maintains XRP supply remains widely available. He also noted that Ripple has stated it helps facilitate XRP supply transfers, including for ETF-related activity.

The Exchange Balance Decline Question

Recent on-chain data shows XRP balances on centralized exchanges dropping sharply in 2025. Figures suggest exchange-held XRP fell from over 4 billion earlier in the year to around 1.6-1.7 billion by late December, with approximately 750 million XRP reportedly moving off exchanges in recent weeks.

While such moves often signal lower selling pressure, the analyst cautions that this does not automatically mean a supply shortage.