December 29 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $3,006.15 (as of December 29, 10:12)

Short-term Outlook: The short-term trend shows oscillating upward movement, with technical indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts indicating bullish momentum. However, RSI has entered overbought territory, posing a risk of a pullback. If the $2,950 support level holds, there is a 70% probability of continuing upward to the $3,050-$3,100 range; a break below $2,900 could trigger a chain liquidation.

Key Support Levels:

• $2,950: 4-hour Bollinger middle band and moving average cluster, maximum pain point convergence for options
• $2,900-$2,914: Major bullish liquidation zone (totaling $107 million), 4-hour Bollinger lower band

Key Resistance Levels:

• $3,050-$3,100: Bearish liquidation cluster (over $40 million), extension of daily Bollinger upper band
• $3,234: Daily Bollinger upper band, higher-level resistance

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Price Trends

1-Hour Level: Strong upward momentum but entering overbought warning zone

• RSI(14) reaches 79.08, already in overbought territory, short-term correction possible
• MACD bullish crossover expanding (histogram +5.94), indicating strong bullish momentum
• Price breaks above Bollinger upper band at $2,982.88, volatility expanding
• Moving averages are in bullish alignment, with price > EMA(12) > EMA(26) > SMA(50)

4-Hour Level: Medium-term trend confirmed upward

• RSI(14) at 64.06, in healthy bullish zone
• MACD just completed a golden cross (histogram +6.24), clear buy signal
• Price also breaks above Bollinger upper band at $2,983.25
• OBV at +391,133 indicates positive volume accumulation

Daily Level: Long-term structure still appears weak

• RSI(14) at 49.44, in neutral zone
• MACD histogram turns positive (+7.95), showing signs of bottom divergence
• Price near Bollinger middle band at $3,001.66 but below SMA(50) ($3,040.77) and SMA(200) ($3,587.05)
• OBV at -56 million, long-term volume divergence indicates capital outflow pressure

Derivatives Market

Futures Positions and Funding Rates

Total open interest reaches $38.4 billion (+4.48% in 24 hours), increasing with price rise, indicating growing market confidence.

Funding rate on Binance is +0.0097% (longs pay), showing a mild long bias across exchanges. 24-hour liquidation data shows short positions liquidated at $22.6 million versus $5.5 million for longs, confirming a short squeeze scenario.

Options Market and Liquidation Risks

Total options open interest is $6.12 billion (+0.87% in 24 hours), with maximum pain concentrated in the $2,950-$3,000 range, exerting a magnetic effect on current price.

Asymmetric liquidation risk distribution:

• Downside long liquidations total $836 million (below $2,883)
• Upside short liquidations total $405 million (above $3,092)

This distribution suggests that a downward break could trigger more intense chain reactions.

Exchange Capital Flows

7-day net inflow data shows daily net inflows between +11,500 and +154,000 ETH, indicating overall inflow trend. Exchange reserves have increased from 16.3 million ETH to 16.7 million ETH (+2.1%), with increased liquidity potentially exerting downward pressure on price.

Recent whale activity: Address 0xA339d279 sold an average of 24,700 ETH (worth $73 million USDC) over the past week at an average price of $2,954.

Market Sentiment

Bullish Narrative

• Institutional analysts predict ETH could break higher in early 2026, based on institutional interest and supply dynamics
• Exchange-held ETH supply has fallen to the lowest since ICO, reducing selling pressure and supporting long-term performance
• Staking inflows have increased, with the entry queue surpassing the exit queue since early September, reflecting network participation confidence
• Upcoming Layer 2 projects (Aztec, Megaeth) may serve as catalysts for narrative shifts

Bearish Narrative

• Some observers remain in cash, waiting for clearer upward momentum
• ETH price remains range-bound with low trading volume, potentially persisting into early 2026
• Solo stakers’ yields are relatively low, lacking attractiveness compared to other yield options
• Price stagnation at current levels has sparked discussions about catalysts and demand triggers

Overall Sentiment

Market sentiment is generally neutral with a cautious optimism. Analyst Tom Lee forecasts ETH reaching $7,000-$9,000 this year, with long-term potential of $20,000. Community discussions focus on breaking the $3,000 key resistance, but widespread panic or FOMO has yet to emerge.

Summary

ETH is currently in a short-term bullish phase but with a long-term structural repair needed. The 1-hour and 4-hour technicals are strong, with increasing open interest and short liquidations confirming upward momentum. However, overbought RSI, daily moving average resistance, and rising exchange reserves pose risks of a correction.

The key in the next 24-48 hours is whether $2,950 support can hold. Holding this level could lead to a push toward the $3,050-$3,100 short liquidation zone; breaking below $2,900 risks a bearish cascade. Close attention should be paid to price action around the $2,950-$3,000 maximum pain options zone and derivatives funding rate changes.