December 29 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $89,162 (as of 10:00 AM, December 29)

Short-term Outlook: Slightly bullish with volatility. Technical indicators across multiple timeframes show a bullish alignment, with 1-hour and 4-hour MACD generating golden cross signals, and daily MACD histogram turning positive. Derivatives market open interest has increased by 3.88% in 24 hours to $58.8B, with 89% of 24-hour liquidations being shorts ($21.4M), indicating a short squeeze effect. Expect continued testing of the resistance zone above $90,000-$91,000; a breakout could trigger a larger upward move. Risk of pullback is focused around support at $88,000-$88,500.

Key Supports:

• $88,000 (max pain point for options / daily middle Bollinger Band)
• $87,700 (4-hour super trend line / moving average cluster)
• $87,200 (1-hour lower Bollinger Band)
• $84,950 (daily lower Bollinger Band / deep support zone)

Key Resistances:

• $90,000-$91,000 (daily upper Bollinger Band / dense short liquidation zone)
• $92,200 (daily EMA50 / medium to long-term resistance)

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe technical indicator status

Technical Signal Interpretation:

• Short-term (1H/4H) super trend indicators show bullish signals, with price holding above multiple moving averages.
• 1-hour RSI is in overbought territory (82.73), suggesting potential short-term correction.
• Daily MACD remains negative but histogram turning positive indicates improving momentum.
• Volume indicator (OBV) shows divergence with price (declining across timeframes), cautioning about weakening momentum.

Price channel and volatility

• 1H Bollinger Bands: Upper $88,629, Middle $88,006, Lower $87,183 (price has broken above upper band, indicating strong short-term momentum)
• 4H Bollinger Bands: Upper $88,867, Lower $86,776
• Daily Bollinger Bands: Upper $91,827, Middle $88,389, Lower $84,951
• ATR Volatility: 1H $317, 4H $681, Daily $2,636

Derivatives Market Data

Futures Market Structure

Open Interest Changes:

• Total OI: $58.8B (+3.88% in 24h, +1.89% in 1h)
• Major exchanges: Binance leads with $11.4B
• OI rising in tandem with price confirms current bullish trend strength

Funding Rate: Currently positive at 0.01% (8-hour cycle), longs pay shorts, indicating leverage bias towards bullishness; caution for over-leverage

24h Liquidation Data:

• Total liquidations: $24.1M
• Short liquidations: $21.4M (89%)
• Long liquidations: $2.7M
• Large-scale short liquidations reinforce bullish pressure

Options Market Signals

• Total open interest: $25.9B (+1% in 24h)
• Deribit accounts for 84%, dominating market pricing
• Max pain zone: $88,000-$90,000 (contracts expiring Dec 29 to Jan)
• Recent expiries anchored at $88,000-$90,000 strike, making this a key short-term battleground

Liquidation Risk Map

Bullish Liquidation Dense Zone: $87,084-$88,788 (potential total liquidation $241M, concentrated near $87,000)

Bearish Liquidation Dense Zone: $88,848-$91,690 (potential total liquidation $532M, near $91,000)

Triggering liquidations in these zones could cause chain reactions, accelerating upward price movement.

On-chain and Spot Market

Exchange Fund Flows

Net inflow/outflow over last 7 days:

• Dec 28: Outflow -2,088 BTC (continuous withdrawal from exchanges)
• Dec 27: Outflow -866 BTC
• Dec 26: Inflow +3,517 BTC (anomalous inflow, then reverted to outflow)

Exchange Reserves: Stable at 2,759,758 BTC (~$242B), slight decline indicating reduced selling pressure.

Market Interpretation: Persistent net outflow suggests investors are withdrawing to cold wallets for long-term holding, generally seen as bullish.

Spot Market Performance

• 24h trading volume: $20.54B
• 24h price range: $87,419 - $88,808
• 24h change: +1.54%
• Market cap: $1.777 trillion, circulating supply 19,968,546 BTC
• Major exchanges support spot and perpetual trading (Binance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, etc.)

Market Sentiment and Narrative

Social Media Sentiment

Technical discussion dominates:

• Community focuses on MACD golden cross and comparisons with historical cycles, seeing current technicals as similar to pre-reversal phases.
• Key influencers generally expect support testing to lead to rebounds, with some predicting higher prices by early 2026.

Market structure narrative:

• Institutional narratives of BTC payments and ETF adoption continue to reinforce long-term confidence.
• Whales accumulating and supply tightening suggest preparation for potential shocks.
• Fear & Greed Index at fear level (29), historically indicating potential rebound opportunities.

Cautious views:

• Low liquidity at year-end raises risks of manipulative sell-offs or sudden dips.
• Some analysts warn to watch for final bottom testing.

Overall sentiment: Cautiously optimistic, with technical and on-chain data supporting short-term consolidation or slight upward bias, but vigilance needed for sudden volatility in low liquidity conditions.

Macro Environment and Risks

Recent Events and Impact

Regulatory developments:

• EU MiCA regulation officially enforced (unauthorized crypto services illegal)
• Hong Kong new virtual asset custody rules effective
• UK exchange reporting rules implemented around Dec 29

Tighter regulation may temporarily impact liquidity but could promote market normalization long-term.

Corporate holdings risks:

• Some publicly listed companies holding large BTC (e.g., Strategy with over 670,000 BTC) face potential sell pressure due to stock declines and convertible debt pressures.
• Year-end asset revaluations may add to selling.

Market cycle position:

• Current price down about 31% from October 2025 high of $126,198, in late correction phase.
• Profit-taking and macro liquidity shifts are main reasons for short-term pullback.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Long Position

Entry zone: $88,000-$88,500 pullback to support Target: $90,000-$91,000 (primary), then $92,200 on breakout Stop-loss: below $87,500 (near 1H lower Bollinger Band) Probability: If support at $88,500 holds, approx. 70% chance of continuation upward

Short Position

Entry zone: $90,500-$91,000 resistance area Target: $88,000 (max pain / middle Bollinger Band support) Stop-loss: above $91,800 (daily upper Bollinger Band) Risk: Short squeeze risk in liquidation zones, position size should be controlled

Wait-and-see Zone

Range: $88,000-$90,000 In this zone, it’s advisable to wait for clear breakout signals before entering, to avoid false reversals.

Conclusion

BTC’s technical outlook shows short-term strength with medium-term correction signs. Multiple timeframe bullish signals, short liquidations squeezing shorts, and persistent on-chain outflows support a short-term bullish bias. The main upside target is in the $90,000-$91,000 zone, which coincides with the daily upper Bollinger Band and dense short liquidation area. Breaking above this could open larger upside space.

Downside risks include overbought correction signals on 1H RSI, volume divergence, and low liquidity-induced volatility. Key supports are at the options max pain zone around $88,000 and technical moving averages near $87,700. A break below $87,200 warrants caution towards $84,950 deep support.

Overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with fear index at low levels hinting at potential reversals, but vigilance for year-end manipulations and regulatory impacts is necessary. Focus on the $88,000-$91,000 range, set strict stop-losses, and follow the trend after confirmation.