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The major gold cycle begins: a historical inflection point appears, and industrial stocks may face a multi-year adjustment
【Block Rhythm】There is a very interesting phenomenon. Financial analyst Christopher Aaron recently pointed out that the price ratio between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold has reached its fourth critical inflection point.
Here’s a simple explanation of what this ratio is: how many ounces of gold are needed to buy one share of each of the 30 components of the Dow Jones. This indicator reflects the relative strength of traditional industrial stocks compared to precious metals.
The key part comes next. Looking back at historical records, the first three inflection points occurred during 1930-1933, 1968-1980, and 2002-2011. Based on the average data from these three cycles, the Dow relative to gold typically declines by 90.5% within 9.3 years. In other words, holders of industrial stocks may experience several years of sustained losses.
Aaron’s judgment is even more decisive — he believes this is the most critical trend reversal in history. Moreover, during this cycle, the decline of the Dow relative to gold is very likely to exceed the average of the previous three cycles. If his prediction proves correct, gold will enter a long-term upward cycle. For those holding cash and precious metals, this could be a signal.
Gold is about to take off again? I need to reassess my portfolio.
1930, 1968, 2002... Will history really repeat itself? Feels like Aaron's explanation this time is a bit esoteric.
Friends holding industrial stocks should probably prepare mentally for a long-term battle.
The logic behind this ratio's turning point is actually quite interesting, but the question is—can we really hit the precise timing?