There is a major event at 4 PM — the largest options expiration in Bitcoin history, totaling $23.7 billion. This is no small number.

Looking back at previous years’ records makes it clear. After the 2023 annual expiration, the market surged by 30%. The September 2024 expiration directly triggered a rate-cutting bull market. Every large-scale expiration seems to flip a certain switch in the market. This pattern is not a coincidence; it’s the inevitable result of capital flow and expectation restructuring.

How do we view the current situation? During Christmas, liquidity dries up, and the gamma hedging mechanism keeps the price tightly pinned between 85,000 and 90,000. On the surface, everything appears calm, but this is precisely the eerie quiet before the storm. The compressed spring will always find a way to release.

Expiration itself should not be seen as a risk. Conversely, it’s the market participants demonstrating their true positions through options tools. From the perspective of maximizing benefits, the biggest pain point is at 96,000 — a massive amount of put options piled up below that level. Guess how the market makers will play it? The aggressive push to squeeze out shorts often exceeds expectations.

For traders, here are a few key points to remember:

First, don’t go all-in before expiration. The current prices are heavily distorted by hedging relationships and do not reflect the true market sentiment. Keeping some bullets is crucial.

Second, once the price breaks above 92,000 and stabilizes, the trend is likely to head straight toward 100,000 or more. This level is a critical point; the significance of breaking through far exceeds the number itself.

The most painful point: if you can’t hold, don’t participate. Every dip in a bull market is cleaning out the floating positions. Either you have enough psychological resilience or you should honestly stay on the sidelines.

The market’s rhythm always cycles — fear creates opportunities, madness produces bagholders. This expiration, whether you choose to watch from the outside or rush out at the moment the door opens depends on your true understanding of yourself and the market.