Wheat Futures Retreat on Early Tuesday Session as Export Data Paints Mixed Picture

2025-12-26 05:39:11

Wheat traders are navigating softer markets across all three major exchanges this Tuesday morning, with the grain complex extending losses from Monday’s session. The pullback reflects growing caution among participants as they digest a complex set of supply and demand signals from the week ahead.

Market Weakness Across All Benchmarks

The selling pressure remains broad-based. Chicago SRW futures retreated 8 to 9 cents across the majority of contracts, marking the start of a volatile week for grain traders. The move was accompanied by notable activity, with open interest climbing by 13,890 contracts as new market participants established short positions. Kansas City HRW futures posted losses of 6 to 7 cents at Monday’s close, while Minneapolis spring wheat declined a similar 6 to 7 cents range during the opening sessions. Each market deterioration of just cent to acre levels adds up when multiplied across farmer holdings and commercial positions, amplifying the market’s directional move.

Export Data Shows Resilience Despite Market Pessimism

The Monday Export Inspections report delivered a more upbeat narrative than the futures market was pricing in. During the week ending December 11, exporters shipped 488,025 metric tons (17.93 million bushels) of wheat—a substantial 23.2% increase compared to the prior week and 61.38% above the same period last year. This performance underscores the ongoing demand for U.S. wheat supplies globally.

The Philippines emerged as the leading buyer with 113,367 MT of wheat purchases. Mexico followed with 89,044 MT, while South Korea accounted for 66,008 MT. Through the current marketing year, total wheat shipments have reached 14.124 million metric tons (425.42 million bushels), representing a commanding 21.9% increase year-over-year. Such figures typically support prices, yet the market’s bearish tilt suggests traders are looking beyond near-term export strength.

Export Sales Tell a Different Story

Complicating the bullish export narrative, USDA Export Sales data for the week ending November 20 revealed 361,715 MT in new bookings—marking a 5-week low for fresh sales commitments and slightly trailing year-ago levels. This divergence between actual shipments and new orders raises questions about the pipeline and suggests commercial buyers may be taking a more cautious stance on future commitments.

Managed Money Positioning Shifts

Commitment of Traders data as of November 25 shows speculative funds are gradually rebuilding their net short exposure in CBOT wheat futures and options. Spec traders added 5,055 contracts to their short positions, bringing the total to 53,746 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, managed money increased net shorts by 2,125 contracts to reach 22,064 contracts. Such positioning adjustments often coincide with trend reversals or consolidation phases in commodity markets.

European Supply Side Signals

The French farm ministry’s latest acreage estimate for 2026 soft wheat production stands at 4.56 million hectares (11.25 million acres), representing a 0.1 million hectare increase from the prior year. This modest expansion in European wheat acreage adds another layer of global supply context to pricing discussions.

Price Action Snapshot

CBOT Wheat:

Mar 26 contract: Closed at $5.20 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; currently down 5 1/4 cents
May 26 contract: Closed at $5.29, down 8 1/4 cents; currently down 5 cents

Kansas City Wheat:

Mar 26 contract: Closed at $5.12, down 6 cents; currently down 3 1/4 cents
May 26 contract: Closed at $5.24 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; currently down 3 cents

Minneapolis Spring Wheat:

Mar 26 contract: Closed at $5.69 3/4, down 7 cents; currently down 3/4 cent
May 26 contract: Closed at $5.78 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; currently down 1/2 cent

What’s Next for Wheat Traders?

The confluence of strong export volumes, weakening new bookings, and building spec short positions suggests wheat markets are in a state of transition. While export demand remains robust, the hesitation in forward sales commitments and trader positioning shifts point to caution about longer-term fundamentals. Traders monitoring the complex will want to watch for any shifts in international buying patterns and additional positioning adjustments from managed money accounts.

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